Oldtent Archives 2010

Sorry, I haven’t seen your earlier posts-so I don’t know. If it is for gold, what exactly is the road map for this month and beyond?

Remember what I posted 2 weeks ago … “So the odds are very high for “up into mid February”, “down into early March” and then “up again into mid March” at least.” …

Here my next outlook:

 Against all odds (”sell all the rallies” almost all the time … think of one-trick-ponnies”) last predicted turning point was a bottom and we went up as projected.
With the perma bears thereafter silently having vanished thru the backdoor.

These turns work since a year like clockwork. With since March last year just 3 inversions in 26 projections.

So here you have the next one:
Monday is new moon. It’s the eye of the hurricane. UCT turn is either wednesday (according to Puetzs book) next week or tomorrow Friday (according to Puetzs newsletter).
So we have approximately a week in between which the high will be seen.
In between the UCT turn and the lunar turn there could well be an increase of volatility and magnitude of swings.
Then we go down into end of March/early April where the next turns sits.
According to the book it should be a VERY sharp and devasting selloff. Though I have my doubts. Expect the SHARP and DEVASTING selloff instead after mid May into early August.

Back to the projection: Keep in mind that we could see an inversion and only proper stop loss management will protect against that case.

Accordingly strategy is: sell new highs, have a reasonable stop and consider to add one the trend south is clear.

Above strategy is confirmed widely in TA - as most markets are either oversold or overbought now, also in the more longterm timeframes.

And finally once mamun comes out again with his mantra “sell all the rallies” - another confirmation that we turn.

McHugh also has almost all markets close to topping with just a small v left. If the DOW makes new highs above 10725 his count is obsolete.
He also has several turndates in coming days and week adding to the likelyhood of a turn.

Cyclist is opposite of above projections. Expects a bottom end of this week or early next week - and a sharp rally into mid May.

I have already months earlier said that this turn and the turn mid April will be one of the most important this year. Because it lays the groundwork for the next couple of weeks. A sharp selloff making new lows confirms the January highs and adds probability this is a type 3 wave south with correction into mid May and the 5th into August. No new lows and instead just a normal correction adds probability this is just a correction within the 5th north - topping not before mid May and thereafter a EVEN MORE DEVASTING smash will be seen. In the later case I even consider to sell (or hedge) part of my coins for the duration of 2-3 months.

I myself have no clue and no reason to predict anything. Mr. Market will decide and paint the charts timely enough.
Although I’m pretty sure that the summer selloff will be xfold worse than this UCT 5xL.
Next 5xL is 05/12/2012. Before that date we have a 4xH due 04/22/2011. Means from the next major low a good rally over close to a year. Question: when will se see the next major low? Within next 2 weeks - or in summer. In my books it’s summer. But “Mr. Market will decide and paint the charts timely enough.”

Odds are approximately 27:3 that this is a top and a turn will be seen within coming 5-6 trading days.

Nuf babbled for coming two weeks - until a few days before the next turn.

DYOD and gl & gt

PS: above “projections” are especially true for indices and EURJPY. As for Gold and Silver - I won’t rule out, that they will go their own way - and not join the broads over next 2 weeks. Although that is somewhat unlikely - or not? You see - as for Gold - no clue what it will do next 2 weeks. Much will depend on EURUSD and the Buck, which looks topping so far - but another selloff in indices and EURJPY could well propel it even higher again. So re Gold - 2fold ==> DYOD !!!

“Gold and crude drop on surge in Chinese inflation”

As Bill Murphy says=”Orwellian”

 thanks for the Jesse Ventura update. Sounds like a perfect performance from the four bimbo’s, attempting to ridicule Jesse as a whacked out conspiracy guy. Course, I’m sure the bimbo’s couldn’t account for WTC 7 or the missing black boxes - all four of them.

 If Jesse would team up with Ron Paul they’d win the next election in a landslide. Good for Jesse for speaking the truth.

China shipments up as well as some tec. I wonder what it could  be? Copied CD movies and other games, computer  harware as the jobless sit in front of their computers looking for jobs, that is if they can afford it, and movies to pass the time or copied designer goods because people cant afford the real stuff.And then there the dollar store. One can capitalize on a falling economy if one thinks.

Come to think of it gold is being out sourced, like everything else, China and India lol But I bet they wont sell it back cheap as their other stuff they send us.

midas and gold bubble? thats happening that is and theyre blowing it up. Gold is not a bubble  Gods sake its a measure of survival against the GLOBAL dollar. Like Sinclair said there no such thing as a jobless recovery. People who made 50 to 100k a yr who are now making 9  dollars an hr is not a recovery its a depression. You cant  have a falling gdp , jobs that will never come back ” chronic unemployment” and a astronomical dept with printing press still running and  call gold some bubble. What are they going to do “out source it, or  merger it with microsoft? lol

Hello YellowBird.  Agree with you on all counts.

Using the example of Jesse Ventura, I guess one might draw the conclusion that I don’t want anyone to have reason to believe I’m not paying attention here or that I’m hiding in a corner of life.  Yet I have no notion that I could change anyone’s mind, nor would I want to if I could.  Just speaking mine.

Of course you may have noticed that when I speak my mind in the Tent, it sometimes happens to create a bit of contrast, so I’m in luck.  It’s like built-in ‘perpetual motion’.  Anyway, it looks unlikely there will be any shortage of contrast in the near term.  If the impossible does happen one day and everyone everywhere all of a sudden decides to be happy and the contrast runs dry, well I’d be so flabberghasted I’d eat my hat and Voila!  there’d be instant contrast for me again.  But I think we both know that the contrast isn’t ever going to run out for any of us, so I like to take mine with as much happiness as I can muster up.

Speaking of getting happy, maybe you’ve already enjoyed the below excerpt from an Abe workshop, click on the rainbow to see it.  Good night.

  *GB

PS  Thanks for the reminder to appreciate everyone & everything.

I was trapped in front of a TV today when Barbara Walter’s show “The View” had Jesse Ventura on as a guest, promoting his new conspiracy theory book. He got an interesting treatment from the panel of women… not unlike some posters here. Jesse is quite bald, with a long gray fringe of hair that makes him look much like the old images of Ben Franklin, so he was an interesting contrast to the usual glitz.

The little blond brainless Bush-defender rattled on how jet fuel burning temperature WAS enough to weaken steel in the WTC collapse… like she would know.

The queen of media chrones herself took every opportunity to cluck how ‘everything’s a conspiracy’ and to minimalize, question deprecatingly, and marginalize most everything Jesse said.

At one point, Jesse said that the media itself was at fault for not honestly investigating and marginalizing those who ask questions. He said he didn’t want to write the book when initially approached to do so, because he didn’t want to subject himself to this kind of ridicule. But after two weeks, he reconsidered and did write the book because (paraphrasing):

“…I didn’t want future generations to think that ALL of us blindly accepted the government line and went along unquestioningly. SOME of us were questioning and thinking. And rational dissent of the government is the basis of LIBERTY and patriotism, and freedom from government oppression.”

Jesse is a true libertarian and patriot, and held his head up high despite being forced to wade through the media mudpies and magpies he was assaulted with.

Kinda reminds me of just another day at the tent.

Goldballoon: Admire your questioning. But it is usually fruitless on some subjects, and not everyone can, nor should, adapt to your ‘be happy’ & feel good approach to life. The law of attraction states that we need to experience ‘contrasts’ in order to know what good WE individually want to materialize for ourselves in our individual lives. Like today’s quote:

“As you diminish contrast, you diminish your ability to decide, and as you diminish your ability to decide, you diminish your ability to focus, and as you diminish your ability to focus, you do away with your reason for existing.”

–Canary in the Gold Mine.

Fully- I think you’re talking about AADD but you dropped a character.  Maybe you were distracted momentarily between typing the first “A” and the first “D”.  I enjoy the affliction myself, adult attention deficient deficit dis-odor but anyway nice to see Gold going up over the long (10 year) term.

Bill H:

U.S. States and Sovereigns

To all; the talk has recently been all about Greece and the PIIGS because that’s where the media has steered attention. Of course Moodys downgraded Greece and the media went on it’s “the Euro is dead” frenzy at a most opportune time as the Dollar was looking very sickly on the charts at the time. Divert attention in other words.

Attention was diverted from several (many) US states that were and still are walking financial zombies. California, New Jersey, Illinois etc. are running deficits and debt levels similar to and in some cases far worse than Greece in percentage terms. What is truly humorous is even with retarded budget projections the numbers aren’t working. How many states have “proposed” budgets that have turned out to be pie in the sky dreams after only 6 months? The tax revenue projections that have and are being used by many states are so far out of whack that the ink doesn’t even get a chance to dry before a 3rd grader puts a pencil to the projections and figures out they are wrong!

This goes for many big cities, counties, and municipalities. The point is…EVERYTHING is broke! The only thing not broke is the stock market but that’s only because of the PPT support and rigging. Unemployment insurance is being extended further and further into the future while tax revenues decline. Much of the so called “employment” has been in the public sector that will obviously weigh further on all government budgets. It is not sustainable in any way even if the credit markets don’t seize up.

Anyone who doesn’t believe we have a stock market crash and train wreck directly ahead must believe we have a hyperinflationary event coming immediately or they can’t do math. You cannot have sovereign governments, US states, cities etc. (and federal government) on the verge of bankruptcy and stocks not panic and stay at these levels. In my opinion the only justification for “Dow 10,000″ is the probability (guarantee) of hyperinflation, period!

There is no recovery in real estate, employment, main street or anywhere else except for Wall Street because of the $ trillions pumped in and running through it’s veins. About once every 10 days or so we hear about the Fed raising rates and withdrawing stimulus. This cannot happen without an immediate fatal heart attack to Wall Street and Main Street taking a final body blow. It is now and has been for years, “inflate or die”. The Fed is having a difficult time “reinflating” with their foot through the floor boards on the accelerator, taking their foot off the gas (not to mention tapping the break) is entirely out of the question and nothing more than poor humor..

It is now only a matter of time before investors get spooked by the fear of sovereign defaults spreading like a disease. The day is not far off where ALL paper gets shunned and real money gets bids that swamp actual supply. Once the thought process turns to “there’s no place to hide”, the amount of fake capital trying to enter metal and the ridiculously small Gold stock arena will bid these assets to never before dreamed of values. When there is no place to hide “within” the system, capital will move outside the system.

The problem is very very simple indeed. This week alone the U.S. Treasury is borrowing 1 1/2 times the entire annual global production of Gold. And how much have they borrowed the week before that and the week before that…? The math is impossible and the lifeboat far to small to accommodate anyone even 1 second too late! What could “never happen” 2 or 3 years ago has already happened and then some. Now we wait for sovereigns, U.S. states and cities, even the U.S. Treasury to default………..or hyperinflate. It is only a matter of time now and no longer a question of if! Regards, Bill H.

he will be calling a few folks. he said the flintstone project is going great.

rno

….A Swedish Romanian Aetheist…so you’re a Blond Gypsy with no Soul ?

Lumber again shows gold trading sham

Bill,
Once more I turn your attention to “unfettered lumber”, or, the mirror opposite of the corrupt gold market. You almost have to pause after reading each sentence below to savor it, for such experiences have NEVER happened in gold the past decade. This is again from Brian V. Leonard/ Leonard Commodities:

The market continues it pre-expiration rally. Again the market was caught short. May finished limit up for a second session. March finished up $10.20. The March contract follows the cash market up as buyers come here to get covered. The price out there was quoted at $278.00 and trading. The issue again is availability. That problem has come into play during the last 2 expiration phases and again is showing up.

The market is up $130 dollars because of the cuts in production. We continue to see a tightness in many items and that never really gets corrected. So when things slow there is enough supply, but when activity picks up the market place becomes tight again. My point is that we are not over supplying the market place at this time. The market is under supplied for certain items, but doesn’t look that way when it is quiet.

So to summarize:

* Lumber rallies into contract expiration.
* The lumber shorts are getting squeezed.
* Two consecutive limit-ups.
* Futures must catch up to cash.
* Futures recognizes availability of physical as the issue.
* Repeated short squeezes at contract expiration.
* Lumber up $130, or 75% in very short order.
* Recurring physical tightness reflected in futures trading.

Until any of these experiences ever happen in the gold market the CFTC is willingly turning a blind eye to the corruption. You’d have to be an imbecile to not see the rigged and controlled gold trading patterns versus a commodity that isn’t burdened by manipulation. For gold to have put in the same performance as lumber the past few months it would have went from $1,070 to $1,855, with several days of +$70 or more, and a few back-to-back gains of $140. THAT’S what a free gold market would look like. But then again one or two bullion banks aren’t throwing the kitchen sink at lumber longs. Lucky them, eh?
James Mc

It was a wild day and one of the truly farcical manipulations in American trading history. Early on I felt some genuine excitement. Silver was soaring and gold kept coming back from blatant takedowns. But THEN…

-Gold was bombed FIRST and then silver was absolutely brutalized after its breakout.
-Crude oil was soaring, but then suddenly reversed to go down on the day. Crude oil fell from $83.03 per barrel to $80.31 BUT it then came back following the Treasury auction to close up 60 cents per barrel to $82.09.
-Platinum crashed from $1615 to $1575.
-The DOW is usually orchestrated to the downside ahead of a Treasury auction when the Treasury needs help. It went from up 40+ to down 20+. Then recovered after the auction results were announced and finished the day a pinch higher.

13:02 10-yr note auction yields 3.735% with 70.94% allotted at the high
•Bid/cover 3.45 vs. avg of past 10 auctions 2.77
•Indirect participation 35.1% vs. avg of past 10 auctions 40.3%
•In reaction:
2-yr (2/32) to 0.82%
5-yr (7/32) to 2.3%
Dow 10558.75, (5.55)
* * * * *

The yield on the 10 yr T note then fell back to finish the day at 3.72%.

Meanwhile, the dollar closed LOWER, down .10 80.48 …really bearish for the precious metals eh?

The CRB only fell .17 to 274.62.

There is no other rational explanation for what occurred to gold and silver except the one emanating from the GATA camp. The commentators on CNBC never appeared to be so Muppetish as they were today. Blah, blah, blah about nothing. Besides being so naïve and pathetic sounding, they are becoming more and more like Pravda of the broken up Soviet Union. Jesse on that score…

Propaganda Campaign Attempts to Mask Economic Risks and Reality

In addition to the media blitz dissected by Yves Smith in the essay excerpted below, I have never seen such a load of rubbish being put forward with regard to the markets in US financial assets and commodities, and I have seen quite a bit in the last twenty years. In particular, the campaigns against gold and silver in particular are heavy-handed, obvious, and reaching the point of hysteria.

The shorts are trapped, hopelessly trapped, and unable to deliver on their massive short positions. They are only able to manipulate the price in short term bursts, and continue to dig themselves deeper as the world demand continues to drain them.

Whoever heard of a bubble in which the major money center banks are so perilously short it? A bubble requires a broad participation and belief, and the encouragement of the market makers. And now a statement from an “SEC official” that there is a gold bubble. This, from the very people who allegedly could not see the tech, housing and credit bubbles.

And of course there are the funds and the wealthy, who mouth the same party line while lining their portfolios with huge positions.

They can require all the big players to make statements swearing gold and silver are no good. But the fact remains that the US dollar reserve currency regime is falling apart, tumbling like the humpty-dumpty construct that it is. And the status quo is shitting their collective pants about it, and the likely backlash from an outraged public when their deceptions are exposed.

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/03
/propaganda-campaign-attempts-to-mask.html

***

Like, I’m from southwestern Saskatcheawan, you know, where the religion of one’s parents dont mean a lot to other people, eh? My pa came from Sweden to Canada, eh, and my mum came from Romania to Canada as a baby, eh, in 1904. They didnt bring religion with them. In fact they gave lots of signals that they came to Canada, in part, to escape the shackles of religion. So we never went to church where I grew up in Saskatchewan. So I ended up being an atheist, eh? It was sure nice to hear your background and compare it to mine. I sure hope we can be friends, eh? Cheers. Equiz.

Dave from Denver notes…

This is absolute bullcrap

No news which triggered this gold sell-off. None. In fact, we’ve dropped over 20,000 in o/i in the April gold contract over the last 2 days. Only part of that was rolled forward. My fund partner, a technical/chart expert, believes that the action points to the cartel covering aggressively here and setting themselves up to manage the price at a higher level. The behavior in the o/i shift supports this, as 1/2 of the April drop in o/i has rolled into June, October, December and 2011. Net we’ve dropped about 10k in o/i over the past 2 days and I suspect we’ll see another drop today, or if they covered on this smash, they’ll reload some of what they covered if we bounce later. This is absolute, corrupt horse hooey. This manipulated smash should be bought aggressively.

Macs are so much better in everything they do, only a pea-brain…well, I’ve already said ’nuff.

China’s exports rose more than forecast in February and posted a third straight gain, a rebound that adds to pressure on policy makers to pare back stimulus measures adopted during the global recession.

Shipments abroad gained 46 percent in February from a year before after a 21 percent advance in January, the customs bureau reported on its website today. Year-ago figures were depressed by a contraction in world trade resulting from the crisis. The trade surplus hit a one-year low of $7.6 billion, affected in part by the Lunar New Year holiday.

The strengthening in exports may reduce excess capacity in manufacturing and contribute to price increases. Premier Wen Jiabao has cited price pressures, along with property speculation and loan quality at banks, among his top concerns for this year.

Imports rose 45 percent after an 86 percent jump in January, today’s figures showed. The advance underscores China’s rising role as a driver of global growth.The export gain in February was more than the 38.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 28 economists. Imports topped a 38 percent estimate and the trade surplus was in line with forecasts.

china daily

Throw out the bigots and those who would stifle conversations that give us insight into what’s happening in our world.  I could make those calls rather easily from what I’ve seen so far. By the way, I like most Jews and have loved Israel since I read Michener’s “The Source” many years ago.  I’ve known about “The Liberty Incident” since the sixties and I don’t like it anymore than the many cover ups that all politicians seem to prefer. Bring every thing out in the open is my choice.    BDC

why?!  doncha wanna get stoned?!

“Stone the Rabble Rousers”

…but..now that you mention it…I see how it could work

With a slight modification to the wording, FGC might very well just go straight to instituting your suggestion, without a vote.  He could become the happiest of repeat offenders.  Try this:

“Don’t necessarily want to see more discussions about Israel or Jews, just do not inhibit rational debates by honest seekers of knowledge and truth.  Stone the rabble rousers!”

….You make the call….who gets thrown out for what ?