Oldtent Archives 2010

Great advice for all…..A must read for the younger bunch!

All the best.——–aggie.

Am following your seasoned trader banter on UNG. Tks for the comments and insight. Heard tonight on national news that this coldsnap may be the biggest outbreak since ‘85. Has to positive for natgas in the short to intermediate term. Am still pretty optimistic about holding UNG…..Maybe we’ll get a run to 16 or so. Wonder what the bozo Gore is spouting about global warming these daze??? What a crock of shist!

All the best.——–aggie.

I’m so pleased I took IP’s dilemma to the Tent, where else can you find so many wise people willing to share their experiences, knowledge and wisdom.

Good advice from Ferret ” That would be my advice you IP, develop patience” how often do we do something just for the sake of doing something when the pace seems slow instead of waiting it out?

 Yemen is being shoved down our throats all of a sudden.  I think this is how we have started creating bases in other countries. I was defending myself to some friends stating that Yemen was geographically significant and the US would probably like to have a BIG base there. Much better a ground base, then to put one or two of our remaining Carrier groups in the Persian Gulf.  Afterall Iran can tactically control the entire gulf and has the high ground with missles in them theat hills! A carrier group would just be a hideously high value target. The Yemen noise is new and increasing at an explosive rate.  We are closing the embasy daily. First reports sounded like they would close the embasy permanently.  The rhetoric is increasing.

So what did I just hear on the news?  Hilarious Klintler now referrs to “the Yemen War” !!!!

I about choked!  I don’t know what to say.

aurum:  given that your approach would have worked extremely well in 08, it is very much worth having as plan A.  Say hi to Barney.

ferret:  I think I’ll make a poster out of that… “all paper will burn”

Maddog:  He has other qualities than incompetance and stupidity!  After all he is so far left, he defies description, that must be worth some other lable.

AuNeo:  Wish I had known, we could have had a hand shake and cup of whatever.  Woooooooooo PIG Soooooooeeeee!

Posted: Jan 04 2010     By: Dan Norcini  

Dear CIGAs,

Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini.

I was out your way for Christmas.  Woke up to snow Christmas AM.  Really weird weather ya’ll have.  Tornado warnings, and floods Christmas Eve, snow Christmas Day. And what about them Hogs Saturday!

Neo

Associated Press

“U.S. consumers and businesses are filing for bankruptcy at a pace that made 2009 the seventh-worst year on record, with more than 1.4 million petitions submitted, an Associated Press tally showed Monday.

The AP gathered data from the nation’s 90 bankruptcy districts and found 1.43 million filings, an increase of 32% from 2008. There were 116,000 recorded bankruptcies in December, up 22% from the same month a year before.

While experts believe some of the increase is due to a natural recovery as consumers and attorneys become accustomed to a recent overhaul of bankruptcy laws, the numbers indicate clear correlations to recession-weary regions. Arizona saw the fastest increase, a jump of 77% from the year before, followed by Wyoming (60%), Nevada (59%) and California (58%).

Emile Harmon, who owns a law firm in Tempe, Ariz., said the firm has doubled its staff to handle the surge in bankruptcy filings. The lawyers have been steadily shifting away from their other areas of business, civil lawsuits and divorce cases.

“Bankruptcy is kind of swallowing the whole practice.” Mr. Harmon said. “There’s little time to do other stuff.”

There is also no sign that things are slowing down. Mr. Harmon said bankruptcies have been coming in waves, first with those 18 months ago who had adjustable-rate mortgages, then with those who lost their jobs due to the housing downturn. Now he is finding wealthy individuals and business owners who have finally succumbed to lower incomes and shrinking home values.

“A lot of the people we see were in a really good financial position two years ago,” Mr. Harmon said. “People really look at you and say, ‘I can’t believe I’m here.’”

For three years, filings have been steadily rising back toward levels reached early in the decade before Congress overhauled the nation’s bankruptcy laws. The 2005 alterations made bankruptcy filings more cumbersome, a move that followed fears from lenders that some consumers were abusing the system to wipe away debts.

Bankruptcies surged to slightly more than 2 million in 2005 as consumers rushed to file before the new law took effect but then plummeted to 600,000 in 2006. They have been climbing ever since and in 2009 became the seventh-highest year on record, behind only the years 1998 and 2001-2005.

The 2005 spike had been preceded by a steady climb from 1.5 million in 2001 to 1.6 million in 2005.

John Pottow, a bankruptcy professor at the University of Michigan, said the return to the highs of earlier this decade illustrates the failures of the 2005 overhaul bill. He said the measure largely made filings more costly and time-consuming by forcing consumers to undergo a paperwork-heavy test to determine eligibility for Chapter 7 bankruptcy and adding liability for attorneys who provide help.

“It never made sense in the first place that you could change the laws and make all these bankruptcies go away,” said Mr. Pottow, who would like to see the 2005 law changes repealed. “If people are encountering financial distress, you can only scare them away for so long before they come back again.”

While every state saw a rise in bankruptcies, Alaska (up 12%), Nebraska (12%) and North Dakota (14%) performed best.”

Copyright © 2010 Associated Press

JBI

Ferret I didn’t know you were into surrealist art.

Lifeboat, there’ll always be a place on my property for you and Mrs Lifeboat.

and in light of these freezing temps i was warmed by the new recruit.
she sure has my vote! wj

Some great posts on this topic.

Patience is a virtue of the old.  But the young need it most.  That would be my advice you, IP, develop patience.  Now is not the time for debt, or stocks, or works of art (except nice gold coins, bought at spot).  It is the time for scrimping and saving, preparing for when the time for stocks and debt comes again.  However, that time may be decades away as Lifeboat says.

A different mindset is required for these times.  Too many generations now are accustomed to plenty, and don’t know how to deal with little.  IP and Co. are almost infinitely wealthier than my parents at their age, but that didn’t mean that life wasn’t fun.  Expectations were much lower and life was simpler, money was scarce and debt non-existent (I cherish seeing Dad’s hand written (Barclays) bank statement when he went a shilling overdrawn - written in red ink) but they still had parties and holidays (Europe on ten shillings).  The earlier you start practising this mindset, the easier it’ll be when the mindset is forced upon you.  Learn as many new skills as you are comfortable with.  If you are mechanically totally inept, don’t try car maintenance, but do learn what you can.  If you like beer, home brew it!

Good luck to all. 

The last time physical held up fairly well but the pm stocks fared worse than the general market. But if we have physical rising in price will that make a difference? And too, just because that happened last time, need it repeat?

Barney and I have spent many walks thinking on this issue. What we have decided to do is to overweight the pm stocks while this rise in the general market continues. I have a guess on how long that will be and it is in months - but as I may change my mind on the date when the general market will turn down I won’t speculate now. When the general market does turn down I will exit almost all of the pm stocks and move to physical (using paper substitutes in retirement accounts).

aurum (GLD, DGP, GDX)

Another: all paper will burn.

Self, If there is a massive run on the banks, what the poop will happen to mining stocks?

If the overall market craters, will the mining stocks be an exception, or will they be just another form of paper?

Will lead be worth more than gold?

The UN did nothing to stop Kuwait stealing Iraqi oil with their horizontal drilling.  Saddam had no choice.

“As bad as Obama must be to live under, his incompetence and stupidity will drive PM’s miles higher.” ….. Maddog

JBI

As bad as Obama must be to live under, his incompetence and stupidity will drive PM’s miles higher.

Your dinghy on LP’s dam.

Re Blair and War Crimes etc.

It’s wishfull thinking, he’s covered by UN resolutions which SoDamn Insane broke by invadeing Kuwait and numerous other breaches…….too many forget that the US and UK enforced those resolutions for nearly a decade, with a no flyzone.

I’m no fan of Blair, he was a liveing nightmare as PM but on Iraq he was right.

What next?

JBI

You’ve got that right!

JBI

If I was Al Gore, I would be holding those GloBull Warming meetings in a place like this:

This is a writeup by Casey that he includes in his tretise on take over stocks.  Has anyone had any inclining to buy this stock?  I am considering a Las Vegas play on it.

Exeter Resources: Exeter’s Caspiche is one of the monster deposits located in Chile’s Maricunga area. It looks undervalued, but rightly so due to the early stage of the project – i.e., there is a lot of technical risk in the project. The project needs a lot of capital, and the deeper sulfide mineralization may be too costly to mine, unless the rock turns out to be just right for block-cave mining. How to handle the deeper sulfides is indeed our main point of concern regarding Caspiche. But even the resources that are more likely to be open-pittable are huge, so we see a lot of upside left in the play. At the end of the day, there’s just too much gold at Caspiche to be left there – sooner or later, some major company will find a way to make money putting it into production. And as a rough guide, our implied takeover growth ratio suggests a triple in share price by the time a bid is placed on the company.

hi - yo - (impact) silver

moving up again