Oldtent Archives 2010

Think I’ll put my 2 cents worth in on some comments/ questions you posed recently.  As far as the PM stocks go, they are still following the late 70’s move for move.  That appears to me to include both the larger caps and the smaller explorers.  I see absolutely no reason for that to change.  The one thing I do find interesting is Samb’s comment that “for every PM stock that rose massively in the late 70’s that there were dozens that did not.”  I’d love to see something concrete to back that up.  Of course, I’d like to see a bunch of individual PM stock charts from the late 70’s, anyhow.  The ones that Ed what’shisname posted in his editorial came from Ray “from GE.”  Per Ray, he had a large number of smaller PM stocks in that time period and they pretty well all had huge gains.

As far as ECU goes, I don’t know anything that anybody else doesn’t, but it has seemed to lag in the past so I certainly would not see underperformance at this point cloud the vision of the next point.

I think it is time to ask the question that has not been asked for the last decade.  I have often seen the want of debate on “when it is time to be totally in physical?”  My question is, “Why would there be a time for one to be completely in physical seeing how the markets have all been following the late 70’s for almost a decade, now?”

ALOHA - BIG DEBT

ALOHA BILL !!

Okay … NOW WHAT?

SWEET MOTHER OF GOD!!!

The US PUBLIC DEBT subject to limits went up $166.5BIL USD in one day and it happened on the very last day of calendar year 2009. Remember when the US Congress raised the debt ceiling by $290BIL to $12.394TRIL USD well the gross US PUBLIC DEBT on Thursday went up to $12.311TRIL. They are literally $83BIL away from crossing the new limit and it only took a week! The net US PUBLIC DEBT subject to limits now sits at $12.254TRIL USD.

At this rate the US Congress will need to raise the US PUBLIC DEBT ceiling next week! How embarrassing and perhaps this is why the POG shot up on Monday!

Let me add that there are two line items like a Hulk Hogan tag team for GSE. There is the new line item entitled “GSE Obligations/HFA Initiative” and also the old line item “GSE Investment”. Well then its the “GSE Investment” turn to add another FNM and FRE $15BIL USD TARP2, so in less than a week total for both line items is over $30BIL USD. Perhaps another reason why China wants out of “agency debt”!

Also on the last day of the year the “Three Horsemen of Entitlements” outlays, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, were nearly $27BIL in one day.

Also, again on the last day there was almost $5BIL USD spent on “US Treasury interest”.

We also saw some big Defense and Military Active Duty outlay numbers near the $9BIL USD mark.

By the way, how much tax revenue did the US Treasury take in on this day? Right at $9BIL USD, just enough to cover the Defense and Military outlays only. The rest of the $177BIL USD the US Treasury spent on that day was not covered.

Lets see how did all that get paid for? All total for all US DEBT issued on December 31st the US Treasury created $525.3BIL USD of debt! Here is the breakdown:

MARKETABLE US TREASURY
BILLS = $86.3BIL USD
NOTES = $121.5BIL USD

NON-MARKETABLE US TREASURY SECURITIES
GOVERNMENT ACCOUNT SERIES = $316.8BIL USD

Total US DEBT issued over a three month time period for FY 2010 is $13.9TRIL USD. That is roughly $4.7TRIL per month.

Lets look at the total breakdown so far for FY 2010.

MARKETABLE US TREASURY
SHORT TERM ONE YEAR OR LESS = $1.452TRIL USD
LONG TERM OVER ONE YEAR UP TO 30 = $613BIL USD

NON-MARKETABLE US TREASURY SECURITIES
GOVERNMENT ACCOUNT SERIES = $11.8TRIL USD

Let me just say this about the “marketable” US Treasury debt issues, which total nearly $2.1TRIL in three months time. At the current rate we are allowing our Congress to create debt at the rate of one TARP($700BIL) almost every month for FY 2010. Who needs HANK PAULSON, in fact he was a miser compared to Obama and his US Congress.

Another perspective is that the US Treasury, in three months, has issued total debt of $2,042USD for every man, woman and child that now lives on planet Earth! That goes along with the 4.2 shares of Citibank for every person on Earth!

I have never seen US DEBT jump this much in one day EVER!

This is unprecedented.

MORE DEBT = WEAK DOLLAR POLICY

I checked out this site which was mentioned by a blogger on a NJ TeaParty site.It might prove to be interesting to you. Tell me what you think of it.                      ICaucus.org

Did they spike it on no volume to allow it to collapse and form an even bigger head and shoulders top?

Let you know tomorrow.

directorblue.blogspot.com/2010/01/welcome-to-calicare.html

directorblue.blogspot.com/2009/11/dont-cry-for-me-america.html

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p93285948779

www.youtube.com/user/GeraldCelenteChannel

thats an icesickle thru my mind! owwwwwwwww. wj

BUT BUT BUT, I didn’t know anything about needing to push UXG - I was busy pushing GOLD/SILVER and I did a good job at that!  I need a raise if I gotta push UXG also. 

20 degrees tonight, high 30 tomorrow with snow - 16 tomorrow night — not sure I can get those 9 holes in until March! 

invested in the frizzy one……………………….Fresnillo………………

finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fres.L

but you gata do better boss on uxg tomorrow. perhaps 9 holes of golf will help. wj

they need to be here in the body of the post to hyperlink. cheers wj

Just finished unloading the last of that dog, NEM.asx.

Held since 2002 for 20% gain plus some p*ssant dividends - brilliant investment, eh?

For good measure deleted all reference to them in watchlists and bookmarks - begone and good riddance.

Silver just exploded??

I said nothing about a deep crash for Gold.  Simply that YES, this could turn out to be an ABC down for Gold.  I think it is 50/50 whether we do an ABC down or we break up and thru here - back test the 1140/50 area from the top and then take off to new highs.  Either is possible - I will try to let the market tell me which it will be as I gave up trying to make it do what I think it should do a long time ago.  

I hope you are correct that we go up from here and have no ABC down- that would be good for me and good for all of us.  I will not be as loaded as I would like to be if we go straight up from here but there are always chances to get on the train on a down day somewhere along the road.  May the force be with us! 

As usual I gatta go along with ya buddy ….Keep yer chin up…we are looking good.
Let me worry about everyone from down here…worry worry worry…and worry I do …Love ya all…..

over the past three years. So, imagine GDX printing a 75 and GLD staying right here.

Remember that show, THAT”S INCREDIBLE!

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53576548315

Posted: Jan 06 2010     By: Dan Norcini     

Dear CIGAs,

Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

of course its possible. This is gold. No one says crash but it is certainly possible it is a larger abc.

If the jobs report shows 300,000 plus on Friday, what happens to gold?

This is gold, remember. If it is an ABC, 1050 would be about the bottom IMO. Either way, it matters not. Trade the market in front of you or just sit tight. I prefer to sit tight and play with gold stocks every once and awhile.

www.cjr.org/the_audit/the_real_dow.php