Oldtent Archives 2010

Maybe at a future Tottsville Tentathon………………………….I’ll show everybody.

Now, is the perfect time to start your own Candian GBV team and to build your own “in-door beach.”  Your cost will be inflated away over the next few years, anyhow.  Then, you can simply “travel with the team.”  And…………you’ll be the GBV Tent Hero, to boot.  Maybe you can work out a deal with Wanka and Augirl for some saranwrap bikinis.

What pray tell is a “Candian Hozer Mountie” ? I must have fallen asleep in that class

FGC , maybe if you get really bored you can just join the  Candian Hozer Mountie Association  if  there actually  is a Candian Hozer Mountie Association . O, the ups and downs of hyperindefladoom

Little doubt in my mind that the Bond market will play out that way as the cycle repeats.  They have played out well in hand with the “value vs price” expectation I laid out back in March…………….so far.  Now suddenly, the many are moving to Bonds at exactly the wrong time.

Interesting, your comments on price rises in the late 70’s as I was in school at the time and did not notice.  I am not so sure about you comment on things getting to be terrible for a very long-time, though I haven’t spent much time working that out.  Afterall, this early 09 bottom matches the cycle bottom for the Dow to a “t” in price and in time.  It does sound pretty iffy if after we see a severe spate of global competitive currency devaluations followed by a backing of the currency with some “mix of value” as a cyclical currency re-set…………..to think that more currency inflation can follow.  Yet, the 70’s fiasco was followed by a real ramp up in the Dow to new highs.

Of course, one has to remember that at that point of currency re-set, the banks whom will have likely seen their nasty derivative assets mostly inflated away, along with massive new capital from stock sales………………….might well start lending, again, so we might see massive credit expansion with “internal currency inflation” via the FRB multiplier system.  Afterall, if the derivative debt has been mostly inflated away, so will have much of the debt of the peoples……………along with repudiation of debt by the people.  Never underestimate the fiat currency systems.

Also, what if the Asian currencies are used as part of the “backing value” for other currencies, then after the re-set the Asians start printing?  I guess that is no different than what was done with the US Dollar as the reserve currency, no?

Oh what a wicked fiat web we weave……………………….I think the above with  Gold only being part of the backing for currencies after the mess is over is why JS says that Gold will stay “relatively high”, rather than falling in a waterfall decline like post 1980.  Could it be due to part of the backing for the currencies continuing to be fiat that will be inflated?

 Should be interesting……………

Ditto on that….People in the 70’s were buying anything they could get their hands on because they became used to things being much higher after short periods of time. Toward the end of the mania….I was even dumb enough to pay 14% interest on a cattle note….The interest bill turned out to be higher than the wheat pasture. The roll up in cattle prices let me get out of that deal with my ass still in one piece.  Others I wasn’t so lucky on. The young “me” was a helluva lot more of a gambler than the older “me” is now. One good thing about getting old.

All the best.——-aggie.

On December 25,  1977, at the very beginning of the negotiations between Israel and Egypt in Ismailia , I had the opportunity to have a short discussion with Muhammad Anwar Sadat the president of Egypt . “Tell your Prime Minister, he said, that this is a bazaar; the merchandize is expensive . ” I told my Prime Minister but he failed to abide by the rules of the bazaar similar to all the Israeli governments and the media .

In the bazaar of the Arab-Israeli conflict, the two sides are not discussing the same merchandise . While the Israelis wish to acquire “peace”, the Arabs wish to annihilate the Jewish state and get rid of the Jews .

To achieve their goal, the Arabs took to the battlefield as well as to the bazaar diplomacy . The wisdom of the bazaar is that if you are clever enough you can sell nothingat a price, however in the bazaar only a foolish buyer pays for something he has never seen .

In the present situation in the Middle East and in the foreseeable future “peace” is nothing more than an empty word . Israel should stop speaking about “peace” and delete the word “peace” from its vocabulary together with such phrases as “the price of peace” or “territory for peace” . For almost a century the Jews have been ready to pay the Arabs any price for peace . They have received nothing, because the Arabs have no peace to sell .

Since this is the situation, Israel should openly declare that peace does not exist as an option in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and that if the Arabs ask for peace; they must pay for it . For unlike the Arabs, Israel has this merchandize for sale and therefore, Israel should be the side demanding payment for peace and fixing its price

Therefore, if anyone asks Israel for plans, the answer should be: “No plans, in fact no negotiations at all . ” If the Arab side wants to negotiate, let it present its plans and its “ideas” . To which the Israeli answer should always be: “Unacceptable! Come with better ones . ”

Here are ten rules for bargaining in the Middle Eastern bazaar:

1.      Never be the first to suggest anything to the other side . Never show any eagerness “to conclude a deal” . 
 

2.      Always reject; disagree . Use the phrase: “Not meeting the minimum demands,” and walk away, even a hundred times .
 

3.      Don’t rush to come up with counter-offers . Let the other side make amendments under the pressure of your total “disappointment” .
 

4.      Have your own plan ready in full, as detailed as possible, with the red lines completely defined . However, never show this or any other plan to a third party . 
 

5.      Never change your detailed plan to meet the other side “halfway” . Remember, there is no “halfway” . 
 

6.      Never leave things unclear . Always avoid “creative phrasing” . Remember playing with words is the Arab national sport . 
 

7.      Regard every detail as a vitally important issue . Never postpone any problem “for a later occasion” . If you do so you will lose; remember that your opponent is always looking for a reason to avoid honoring agreements .
 

8.      Emotion belongs neither in the marketplace nor at the negotiating table . Friendly words as well as outbursts of anger, holding hands and kissing, do not represent policy .
 

9.      Beware of popular beliefs about the Arabs and the Middle East – “Arab honor” for example . Remember, you have honor too, but this has nothing to do with the issues under negotiation . 
 

10.  Always remember that the goal of all negotiations is to make a profit . You should aim at making the highest profit in real terms .. Remember that every gain is an asset for the future .

To these ten rules another one should be added:

11.  You should never agree to negotiate with more than one side . The Arabs will try to bring as many participants to the negotiating table to put you in an inferior position . Never agree to bring in even so called “friendly participants” . There is no such thing .

The Arabs have been practicing negotiation tactics for more than 2,000 years .

They are the masters of words, and a mine of endless patience .

In contrast, Israelis (and Westerners in general) want quick “results” .

In this part of the world there are no quick results, the hasty one always loses .

….since I wont have a job…I was hoping to watch sports on the Big Screen…

…..probably go back to 10 Major League Baseball teams and the original 6 NHL Teams….

…..judging from the Polls The GBV league players will be making more money than the Star ballplayers….

UNG looks and smells like a dog……So much the better for me to hang on to a little. Remember when gold and silver stunk to high heaven? I was callled a raving idiot by some for even considering buying an ounce of either one. My guess is that nat gas will have it’s day in the sun. Maybe not real soon…..but eventually many will be kicking themselves for not getting in at bargain levels. Anything that’s real is better than holding dollars.

All the best.——–aggie.

………….but you won’t have any electricity to watch it.  Kinda like have your cake and eat it, too.

Or, is the third time a charm?…………………Only the Candian Hozer Mounties know for sure.

Don’t have to set it outside, just cover the glass with a cover as a lid.  Keeps the green gas in your glass that way.  I just use a cottage cheese lid.

i think maybe the vertical gold run will start as the interest rates start inching up. there are mountains of fiat overseas that keep the relative velocity down here for the present. as the interest rates slowly start ticking up, that tidal wave of fiat will come rolling in and velocity will return to relative 1970’s level. i remember those times well. you purchased everything you would need for the near future because it went up every day. that mindset fed on itself and everyone was buying hard assets before they went up more. hoarding became a way of life but once everyone was stocked up, the inevitable happened.

this time around is just another rinse, repeat only on a much larger scale. the next major bust will be the ultimate reset. with every world government broke, no bailout can happen. all debt worldwide will be repudiated and we will drag along the bottom for decades until competent leadership surfaces. we will be in the modern day equivalent of the dark ages. i hope the backlash is enough to extract a little revenge on wall street and the central banks. i may be a little vindictive but i would certainly love to see the sleazy little pear shaped, incompent politicians be forced into a subsistance lifestyle for a few decades. we may even import the mexican lifestyle as california has done.

rno

…Will we get to keep our Big Screen TVs….Or will we all be forced to return them or sell them to buy food and amo…..

…maybe a Big Mac and a Big Screen will be 1:1

Math and more so….History…..the subjects to pay attention to. The principles behind both don’t change a helluva lot.

All the best.——-aggie.

All of the money to afford…………………nothing.

Amen!….Don’t mess with Texas.

All the best.——-aggie.

It was the same thing in the 70’s with the many looking back at 1929 for the big deflation to suck everything under.  Inflation in terms of “more dollars chasing the same or fewer goods” is an easy picture to see.  The effect of a math equation is a bit more complicated for most. 

These poor souls running around the Fed and Wall Street were unfortunate to get an inferior education- afterall, they ended up at ivy league schools.  Hey, that’s gotta itch something fierce, don’t cha know?

Take care…………..

……….Looks like you nailed it…..I never heard you say it quite like that…but that is a great post…

…..When I read Bill H….that was an ahaaaa moment….and now your post confirms it….

….Both You and Bill H explained it real good this time….so even a dumb bug like me gets it

….Hyperindeflation….the worst of both worlds……we are friggen doomed

You hit the nail on the head GR….We have listened to all the deflation arguments as if they were a permanent problem….As you say, all we’ve had is a “deflation scare” ……..a shell game put on by the Fed to promote their agenda to a tee…..massive inflation of the currency to “save the day”. If that ain’t inflationary, I don’t have any idea what is. With over twice as much currency in the system as opposed to a year ago, it boggles my mind to see how anyone can still rattle on about deflation.

All the best.——–aggie.

 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/01/10/golden_no_longer_99845.html

California, a laboratory of liberalism, is spiraling downward, driven by a huge budget deficit.

William Voegeli, writing in the Claremont Review of Books, tartly says that “Rome wasn’t sacked in a day, and California didn’t become Argentina overnight.” Indeed. It took years for liberalism’s redistributive itch to create an income tax so steeply progressive that it prompts the flight from the state of wealth-creators: “Between 1990 and 2007,” Voegeli writes, “some 3.4 million more Americans moved from California to one of the other 49 states than moved to California from another state.” And the state’s income tax — liberalism codified — intensifies the effects of business cycles on the state’s revenue stream: During booms, the stream surges and stimulates government spending; during contractions, revenues dwindle but the new government spending continues. Voegeli says that if California’s spending had grown no faster than population growth and inflation from 1992 to 2006, it would have been $65 billion less in 2006, and per capita government outlays then would have equaled not those of Somalia or Mississippi but of Oregon, which is hardly “a hellish paradigm of Social Darwinism.” It took years for liberalism’s mania for micromanaging life with entangling regulations to make California’s once creative economy resemble Gulliver immobilized by the Lilliputians’ many threads. The state, which between 1990 and 2007 lost 26 percent of its factory jobs and 35 percent of its high-tech manufacturing jobs, ranks behind only New York, another of liberalism’s laboratories, in the number of outward-bound moving vans. It took years for compassionate liberalism to make California’s welfare menu contribute to the state becoming an importer of Mexico’s poverty. It took years for servile liberalism to turn the state into what Voegeli calls a “unionocracy,” run by and for unionized public employees, such as public safety employees who can retire at 50 and receive 90 percent of the final year’s pay for life. …

I have a friend who recently spent some time in Israel and has now returned. It was interesting to hear her impressions. She is of the opinion that the media is very slanted against Israel and supports the Palestinian viewpoint to the point where very little of what is written is supported by fact. Having never visited the area, I can only base my opinions on what I read and hear.

You and I both know that much of what is written in the media these days must be taken with a grain of salt.

“But haven’t I been talking hyperinflation all this time? Yes but…it’s the response of the Fed and Treasury to these “waves” of deflation that end in hyperinflation! Every “wave” of deflation has so far been met by an inflationary response and I would expect that to continue until “it can’t”.”

————————

This is exactly what we have been saying the whole time.  It is not the economic weakness nor the credit contraction that means anything like it did in 1929, but how the Fed responds to the weakness/ credit contraction, the “State of the Dollar”…………. by monetizing/ devaluing the Dollar as it has been doing in spades as soon as Congress signed off on letting the Fed run amok.

Thus, we only saw the Dollar inflation “switch” from the FRB system out of control to direct monetization of debt/ devaluation, with a short-term pause between.  Thus, as far back as early 2007 I suggested that “pause in-between” since the Fed was almost out of “balance sheet” would be seen as a “deflation scare.”

They can creat a new name like QE, or they can call it Fed body odor, but they are monetizing debt out the wazzu; and the Fed has clearly admitted that.  They now have the markets in a ditty by saying they are going to quit monetizing debt into March, and that they will retract the monetization- but they can’t!  They really cannot do either.  So, China rides their butt and they announce the change………..and we will see a much less aggressive reaction this time around because this time around everybody and their brother knows they are full of sheet and that they must continue to monetize into the future.

As I have said so many times, before, the Fed fully knows that they are reaching the point in the cycle where most countries will have to monetize right along with them (Termed- Global competitive currency devaluations)- the point in the cycle where they can cut loose and do it more aggressively with nothing to stop them.  Thus, like the 70’s period I have long suggested that the cycle says that we will not see Gold cross 1450 to 1500 on the upside till at least the middle to end of 2010.

Nothing I have said here conflicts with the overall view I described to Illusion on two recent dates.  At some point the Dollar will cease to fall in terms of the Dollar Index tainted pricing system as it did in the late 70’s for the same reason.  The US, then, also led the currency inflation parade so as the other countries play currency inflation “Ketchup” (catch-up)- the Dollar though continuing to fall in value will fall less fast than the basket of currencies- thus supporting the Dollar in the bastardized currency index scheme.

Thus, Illusion says, “Hey GR, why do I so much agree with you now when I did not over the last 2 years?”  The answer is simply because I was describing what I saw a couple of years down the line in terms of the cycle that is just now coming into view………coming to pass.

We are seeing the same response by the Fed using a different mode of Dollar inflation this time, but the same Dollar inflation response to economic weakness as the late 70’s- that is the cycle.  The Dollar response to the weakness of the 29 era was initially Dollar deflation so we got the whole deflation ball of wax back then.  The whole game in these times is “the response in the condition of the Dollar…………….Dollar inflation or Dollar deflation.  As long as the Fed continues to aggressively inflate the Dollar there cannot be a deflationary repsonse in pricing because of the simple math fraction involved.  The Fed has been inflating all along except for the short period from 2007 to late 2008 when they ran out of balance sheet.  The Fed has said all along that they will inflate their way out, and they are doing it.  They have no choice.  Other countries have absolutely no choice.  We are now getting very late in the cycle for any change to occur.  We still have one lesser decline to go through as a re-test in Gold, then it is off to a parabolic path into 2012.  That is what the cycle says. 

Is the point to go down to re-test for Gold, here and now?………..or does it come from a higher point over the coming months?  That is the only question. 

Thus in the end, I’ll stick with the fact that the Fed has been inflating the Dollar into a backdrop of massive deflation for the whole decade, only shortly interrupted into late 2008 by necessity as it ran out of balance sheet…………to switch gears to a more aggressive form of Dollar inflation- Debt monetization.  Thus, the 2008 was a response to a “seam between rounds of Dollar Inflation”, not a new course of deflation as it was the massive backdrop of deflation being exposed with no Dollar inflation combatting it for a short time.  And the Fed sold it to the public like candy to a baby.  They devalued the worthless derivatives to zero twisting the arms of Congress, then once Congress handed them the keys to the kingdom they re-valued the worthless derivatives back upward, again.  And, the public came in to buy a gazillion shares of banking stock to give the bankers their bestest bonus bucks, ever……………………and “Presto!”, the Fed claims to have saved the world.  Make me puke.

As I explained to Illusion this last week, I think the Fed totally intends to basically inflate away the worthless derivatives to a high degree because that is the only way they will be able to keep all of that money that came flooding in in terms of new stock floated to the public.  They have absolutely no want to increase lending.  That money will be invested in Gold, Silver, and PM stocks……………….all IMO, of course.  Hey, they have lots of fiat bucks to spend………………………so they need a period of time in early/ mid 2010 to make a grab for PMs and PM stocks on the cheap.  Will they get yours?  Did they get them in 2008?

As I have long stated, the manipulation lies in the form of a fiat paper currency system, along with paper surrogates for about everything these days that can be printed- called “derivatives.”  In essence, we have a fake shadow paper gold system, a fake shadow paper money system, and etc. on down the line.  I have described to Illusion recently, basically how it all fits together in an overview.  It is all a system/ cycle run over and over through time as built on a paper currency system, but it just grows larger in terms of lessor valued paper with more paper derivatives added.  Let’s just call it the “Creature Groundhog Day.” Over, and over, and over, and over………….re-set, run then re-set, run and re-set…………………all downhill for paper derivatives.  And the people buy it…………over and over and over.  That is why the K-wave cycle cycle continually plays out in the West………..with the K-winters lasting about as long as a man’s life span.  Few are ever alive to say, “Hey, I am living Creature Groundhog Day.”

Take care…………..

GATA on CBC

Bill:
For you listening pleasure.
Made my morning coffee taste very sweet.
John Embry is reading from the GATA team play book and runs circles around
Larry Swedroe, who admits he knows nothing about gold yet advises people not to buy any as an investment.
I had to laugh at that goof’s mealy-mouthed BS. The best he could come up with was to imply that John was a “Conspiracy Theorist”. He must be one of those grapefruit-brained morons John mentioned a few years back.
Swedroe has lots of competition, but I would like to get him on Adrian’s MOTY list for 2010.
But the nice thing is, John was clean and concise and the program aired in the morning and the evening, nation wide in Canada.
Enjoy!
Progress is slow but steady.
All the best
David Bischoff
Salmon Arm BC…

Listen to Part Two:

www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/2010/201001/20100111.html

Goldbugs
We started segment a scene from the classic movie, Treasure of Sierra Madre, with Walter Huston giving a life lesson about gold to Humphrey Bogart.

For thousands of years, gold has had an especially seductive allure. It has sparked wars and led explorers into uncharted territory in pursuit of it. And when times got tough, it was the most reliable place to park your money. After all, it was literally the gold standard.
Today, the price of gold is once again on the rise. Some financial analysts are telling their clients to grab as much of it as they can, while others see gold as a bright, shiny bubble that’s just waiting to burst.
John Embry is a true believer. He’s the Chief Investment Strategist for Sprott Asset Management and he was in Toronto. But not everyone is stricken with gold fever. Larry Swedroe is principal and director of research for The Buckingham Family of Financial Services. He was in St. Louis, Missouri

  “An average of eight Palestinians die daily in the Israeli attacks on the Strip. Most of them children.”

 http://www.baltimorechronicle.com/2008/112608Lendman.shtml