Oldtent Archives 2010

You have finally worked out the answer to your own question.  Well done.

An historical definition of an environment of deflation is that ALL asset classes are falling in price in an accelerating manner at the same time as the currency remains strong/ gets stronger.  Any overall look at the charts completely rejects an historical example of deflation in any way at in this time period.  One look at the Dollar chart is the only view one needs to ferret (Hi Ferret) this out.  I have often on the tent asked for anybody to show me even one example in history when a fiat currency fell during an environment of deflation, and the complete silence in answer is deafening.  It is mathematically impossible for that to happen.

Glad to see u post again. Was beginning  to get boring around here. Florida can’t do it alone ya know.

What I find interesting about those graphs is that the initial fractal work I did with the Gold chart suggested the parabola running into mid to late 2012 off the cycle of the late 70’s.  That work was done sometime, ago, so I need to re-do it to try to nail the time-frame down further………………but those charts that you posted seem to support that time-frame.  Further, the article by Greg Hunter stating that the govy has already committed to backing all of the failures of that debt in those charts (for 3 years), indirectly means that the Dollar will be inflated/ devalued to that end/ end point since there is no other way that the govy can handle that debt in this environment.  All of these things falling together is what “makes the cycle.”

Have a great weekend down on the Reef………………..

Unbelievable. So Zimbabwe had inflation, deflation and depression at the same time?  No they didn’t. Zimbabwe had hyper-inflation and depression at the same time and those two go together as in Weimer. Just leave the deflation part out of it because you are confusing asset depreciation with deflation. As in buggy whips, whale harpoons and beany babies, all assets.

No fiat currency has ever survived thru out the ages. Not one, zero, nada, zilch!

Any  fiat currency is only anchored upon one thing…the CONFIDENCE of its creditors. As that confidence erodes the creditors (exporters) require more of that fiat for the same measure of goods and services. If the fiat demand imbalance is not corrected then the situation snowballs into hyper-inflation.

There now has been an the initial erosion of confidence within exporting countries to the extent that they are calling for a new reserve currency…albeit a new world currency or a basket of currencies.

That is the initial “shot across the bow.” As actions speak louder then words, we now see that these countries are diversifying their dollar reserves into tangible assets.

The fact that you are broke and out of work …or that people are selling off assets has absolutely nothing to do with deflation. Deflation will mean that your fiat dollar is gaining in purchasing power… a happening not known in fiat history and one in which China, Japan, Russia, Oil Exporters,etc, would only want more of your fiat, rather then seek to diversify out of it. 

You really do need to upgrade your defensive weapons 

in 2011 i think the time to begin to spec property would be at hand. like 30cents on the high duller? give or take. assuming we are not all bound and gagged in a fema razor wire camp….for our oun health and welfare of course…
its whites of the eyes whites of the eyes..
wj

right up to the ‘end of the world’ in dec of the year.
its de debels again.wj

……..on demographics.  The problem is that every move of the baby boomers into retirement to date has been a deflationary event, but he has never seen one before where the Central Bank inflated the currency into it…………has never seen the Central Bank massively monetize debt into it.  Thus, he is the expert on demographics, but, he is not in anyway an expert when the result is a Central Bank inflating the currency into such an environment because he has never seen one before……………..and he seems not to recognize this one.

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Another De

by Kentucky @ 18:39 pm.

Demographics play into the fate of everyone.  The expert on that is Harry Dent.  His expectation is for depression.

Might be good for some but not many.  Armstrong talks about lack of confidence.  That appears everywhere.  I was in Zimbabwe and Zambia a couple of years ago.  Everything was barter in Zim.  It was inflation, depression, deflation all at once.

Thank you for your assistance with the graphics! 

See Greg Hunter at the below link………………………..

http://jsmineset.com/2010/01/15/jims-mailbox-329/

They have effectively announced that they will continue to monetize everything in site, and it makes no difference that they have announced it publicly as all of the deflation posts over the last couple of days show- nobody seems to care.

Wanka……….those charts confirm one other thing that Greg never mentioned.  Those charts in relation to his comments linked, above, will be the “fundamental basis” for the parabolic Gold move all the way into 2012…………….They have announced that they will basically “monetize all of that debt problem.”

When welcoming the return of your postings to Goldtent a couple of days ago, I added a postscript that I didnt know the reasons for my gut feeling but, despite my lack of reasoned and defensible arguments, my gut feeling was that we are headed for a globe-wide deflationary period. I said at the time that I lacked reasons for this gut feeling, so that is why I now appreciate the points you posted at 15:20. Best wishes. Equiz.

Absolutely superb posts here lately. Thank you.

I never did trust those million dollar notes. I must have had crystal balls.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/6997841/Lebanese–businessman-caught-with-1-million-notes.html

this is my favorite crystal ball chartgraph
next upwj

One of my favorite movies of all time…

I have often commented that we’re nowhere near done with the mortgage explosions, and that where subprime was bad, those loans made in 2005-2007 to people who lied about their incomes - which is 90% of those who took out “ALT-A” loans - were going to be a catastrophe.

Well, as Kirk said, “here it comes”

Moody’s Investors Service put $572.7 billion in Alternative-A residential mortgage-backed securities issued from 2005 through 2007 on watch for possible downgrade after it revised its loss provisions.

The rating agency said Alt-A loans that are 60 or more days delinquent “have increased markedly” since it last revised its loss projections. Alt-A mortgages, which sit between prime and subprime, typically were granted without the borrower showing proof of income or assets.

That’s a cool half-a-trillion worth.

And guess what this means for loss rates?

Moody’s said it now projects, on average, cumulative losses of 14% of the original balance for 2005 securitizations, 29% for 2006 securitizations and 35% for 2007 securitizations. The updated loss projections will have the greatest impact on senior securities issued in 2005, the firm said.

That ought to leave a mark.

No, the banks have not taken write-downs of some 27-30%ish on these securities in aggregate (that’s another $150-170 billion worth), nor has anyone else.

One wonders when our government will recognize that a loan made to someone who claims to have $200,000 in income but really makes $50,000 simply cannot be refinanced into anything the borrower can afford nor is there any way to prevent that loan from defaulting.  This is the ultimate fraud and outrage in “extend and pretend” and “mark to fantasy” - there is no possible way for these loans to be “made good” no matter what happens in the future - they were always going to blow up unless house prices continued to rise forever, thereby allowing the “borrower” to roll them over time and time again. 

Those who believe we can “make it all ok” are delusional beyond words.

http://market-ticker.org/

Demographics play into the fate of everyone.  The expert on that is Harry Dent.  His expectation is for depression.

Might be good for some but not many.  Armstrong talks about lack of confidence.  That appears everywhere.  I was in Zimbabwe and Zambia a couple of years ago.  Everything was barter in Zim.  It was inflation, depression, deflation all at once.

There will however be a shortage of transport (see claptona’s posts on the industry).  In a spock-like scenario, the stranger will be wandering through fields of rotting crops.  The next year there will be real food shortages, as farmers will not have planted.

People cannot appreciate the credit aspect of it.  The neatest way for the Fed to QE would be to buy tens of trillions of useless debt, like Fannie and Freddie, and AIG, and banks deri liabilities: so long as nobody knew they were doing it.  That would stop the credit collapse and a deflationary depression, but guarantee hyperinflation when the cat got out of the bag.

I just keep telling myself “stop it, or I’ll bury you alive in a box”

www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1g3ENYxg9k

Enjoy your weekend ; - )

http://www.usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html

Very well put. Emailed it and TQ’s post to my non-Tent reader friends.

I don’t mind putting that kinda info on the internet.  That info is already there anyway. Compare the FCC’s or any updated QSO database with The Tent locator, and you’ll have confirmation.  Do I care?  I have publicly stated that I am an enemy to ‘their’ gooberment, because the majority of gooberment are criminals.  I feel obligated in this respect.  It’s not like they don’t know who I am, or where I live.  They also know that I have several times sworn an oath to the United States Constitution, and that many years ago I read a great deal of what they call intelligence…on the ‘red side’ of crypto.

And it’s not like they’d ever figure out where my fizz is stashed in the next thousand years.

I’ve considered many aspects of our present-day situation carefully.  While the choice of what’s the best mix betweeen fizz and stocks is usually an interesting topic, and you and I may both may be 100% fizz for our own reasons, I think there are far more important choices facing us immediately:

Is my personal survival more important than that of our country?  Should I turn my back on it, and leave it for others?  What about the direction we would desire for civilization to take?  Of course family is considered first…but isn’t this a trap?  What of our grandchildren?  Our great-grandchildren, and beyond?  They’ll likely never know of our personal actions, but they’ll know what kind of world we left them.  For me, profit was left out of the equation permanently around a couple of years ago.

Yeah, myriad other questions arise from all that, but instead…

I’m not intending to be critical of our differences.  I’ll save some differences with others here for later, when it is more appropriate, which may never be, no matter how desperately those differences need addressing.

Your right to complete privacy should be absolutely respected.  But I’m definately pointing out three things here…one, how much I really miss your posts, two… how little your current privacy will mean if we don’t stand together going forward, and three, you have no LEGAL right to privacy.

That is Constitutional.  Only we can change that.  We The People.

Look at the UK, and what happens when the masses conform as authority dictates. Look at the millions (literally) of white cameras at intersections and freeway ramps everywhere, that are still being installed here and now all across the USA, that the media has failed to inform us about, and most have not bothered to notice.  These are not ‘red light cameras.’

Coming up, prolly before too long, somebody’s gonna have to do some heavy lifting, and if it’s the 18 year olds in the military that do it this time around, following the orders of those we so despise, that which we either cherish or take for granted will likely be lost for generations.

I recognize that this thought runs somewhat in contrast with the theory put forth in “The Fourth Turning.”  But maybe not…I don’t have a crystal ball.

Maya, I dunno if you still keep up here or not…but if ya do, know I really do miss your posts, and I really do wish the best for you, whatever you choose to do.

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Speaking of a crystal ball…

I’m always entertained when people reference crystal balls, for obvious reasons.  But how many have actually seen a REAL crystal ball?

Everyday glass and quartz crystals are chemically similar, but they are practically opposites from a formulative perspective.  Glass is made in minutes, quartz (and other) crystals are grown over tens of thousands of years, and typically with one or more of a wide variety of flaws.

I vaguely knew a geologist in San Diego who just happened to have a real one on display at the county fair a few years ago.
It was softball sized and was personally ground from a naturally
occurring flawless clear quartz crystal.  Even now, I have no words to describe
the feeling I had while holding it in my hands.  Magical, or electric come to mind, but those words are wholly insufficient.  My eyes were drawn deep into it
involuntarily.

But there was nothing regarding the future in there that I could see!

Teasing me, he asked if I wanted to buy it…I just laughed, and handed it back.

Shortly thereafter he turned down a $50k offer for it, from one of ‘my’ San Diego Chargers.

But ya know, there’s only two questions I want answered anyways…

Why are we in this handbasket?  And where are we going?

 there’s either going to be inflation, deflation or both at the same time. Weimar had both. Either way, gold thrives.

 http://goldfuture.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/germany_food.jpg

but hey, let’s just beat it to death some more

This is really cool…
check it out….
link:
market-ticker.org/archives/1865-Hope-And-Changes-Backlash.html