Oldtent Archives 2010

Earlier this week I suggested HUI 350ish as the the potential downside target………..then a “range trade”, high end to low end for awhile.

China on Friday protested the US decision to sell 6.4 billion dollars in weapons to Taiwan and warned of “serious” damage to relations and cooperation with Washington. China’s Vice Foreign Minister He Yafai made an urgent official demarche to the US ambassador in Beijing, Jon Huntsman, in the early hours Saturday local time, Wang Baodong, spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, told AFP.

“The latest US move to sell weapons to Taiwan, which is part of China, constitutes a gross intervention into China’s internal affairs, seriously endangers China’s national security and harms China’s peaceful reunification efforts,” Wang quoted the protest as saying.

“The US plan will definitely undermine China-US relations and bring about serious negative impact on exchange and cooperation in major areas between the two countries,” he added.

Breitbart

The Dollar isn’t even a good dead cat bounce, until it rallies to 80 and 82.  Good luck with the dead cat if you get it.

At some point it will be easier to post the banks which aren’t failing. 

Interpretation depends on preconceived notions. Your intent is to show how poorly the stocks are performing compared to silver metal. I could look at that chart and think, “Hm, the stocks are oversold, good time to buy.”

LOL!  I don’t think any of us would be too happy with that!

by CalculatedRisk on 1/29/2010 07:51:00 PM

From the FDIC: First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Raleigh, North Carolina, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Regional Bank, Los Angeles, California

First Regional Bank, Los Angeles, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. …

As of September 30, 2009, First Regional Bank had approximately $2.18 billion in total assets and $1.87 billion in total deposits. …

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $825.5 million. … First Regional Bank is the 14th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Imperial Capital Bank, La Jolla, on December 18, 2009.

by CalculatedRisk on 1/29/2010 07:03:00 PM

From the FDIC: SCBT, N.A., Orangeburg, South Carolina, Assumes All of the Deposits of Community Bank and Trust, Cornelia, Georgia

Community Bank and Trust, Cornelia, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. …

As of September 30, 2009, Community Bank and Trust had approximately $1.21 billion in total assets and $1.11 billion in total deposits. …

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $354.5 million. …. Community Bank and Trust is the 13th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was First National Bank of Georgia, Carrollton, earlier today.

by CalculatedRisk on 1/29/2010 06:23:00 PM

From the FDIC: Community & Southern Bank, Carrollton, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of First National Bank of Georgia, Carrollton, Georgia

First National Bank of Georgia, Carrollton, Georgia, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. …

As of September 30, 2009, First National Bank of Georgia had approximately $832.6 million in total assets and $757.9 million in total deposits….

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $260.4 million. … First National Bank of Georgia is the tenth FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Rockbridge Commercial Bank, Atlanta, on December 18, 2009.

From the FDIC: Premier American Bank, National Association, Miami Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Florida Community Bank, Immokalee, Florida

Florida Community Bank, Immokalee, Florida, was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. …

As of September 30, 2009, Florida Community Bank had approximately $875.5 million in total assets and $795.5 million in total deposits. …

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $352.6 million. …. Florida Community Bank is the 11th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Premier American Bank, Miami, on January 22, 2010.

From the FDIC: United Valley Bank, Cavalier, North Dakota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Marshall Bank, National Association, Hallock, Minnesota

Marshall Bank, National Association, Hallock, Minnesota, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. …

As of September 30, 2009, Marshall Bank, N.A. had approximately $59.9 million in total assets and $54.7 million in total deposits. …

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $4.1 million. … Marshall Bank, National Association is the 12th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Minnesota. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was St. Stephen State Bank, St. Stephen, on January 15, 2010.

 Noticed the little uranium stocks were up today. Obama’s nuclear blessing?

Russell also says tonight that there is a pretty good chance that the Dow could go to 1000.   That is one way to reach the 1:1 ratio that I believe will occur, but I won’t be terribly happy if that is the way it happens.

To view the market from the lens of XOM on a 20 year weekly.  Just tipped into the March ‘09 candle. Wonder how the rest of the sectors will fare…

TCG

As of September 30, 2009 GLD is the fourth-largest single position at Soros Fund Management…12th largest overall holder of GLD.

www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-etf-george-soros-federal-reserve-central-banks-/index/a/26591

“Gold is the ultimate bubble” may just mean that - ultimate!

Whenever that is - we’ll have had all other bubbles … frr

 ”the S & P could fall 100 points in a day”

 Yep - easy. The markets look ugly. Pretty amazing how well physical has held up so far. As far as parabolic gold stocks, I wonder if anyone won’t be broke by the time it happens, if it ever happens.

 Watching Goldman Sux closely - no turn until they turn.

Interesting discussion…I normally don’t use them, but saw a couple of points to ponder in KB’s Chart.  Admittedly, I found $HUI:$SPX to be more interesting…thanks for posting these.

TCG

Watch the CNBC interview with George Soros Mr Soros, arguably the most famous hedge fund manager in history, warned that with interest rates low around the world, policymakers were risking generating new bubbles which could cause crashes in the future. In comments delivered on the fringe of the World Economic Forum, Mr Soros said: “When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold.”

Russell Comment — Even a billionaire can talk like a fool. Gold hit a high of 850 back in 1980. Gold is now priced at 1084, just 27% above its price of 27 years ago. How can Soros say gold is in a bubble? My opinion — in view of the incredible recent production of dollars, the dollar should be substantially lower. Thus, it makes more sense to say that the dollar is in a bubble.

I wonder where Soros’ money is invested. It’s probably in dollar-denominated assets. No wonder Soros denigrates gold. Anyone heavily in dollars fears and hates rising gold. When gold rises, the dollar is being devalued against the eternal, immutable standard — gold. So, of course Soros hates rising gold. I think he’s talking like an old misguided fool.

Thanks for posting that chart. I’d love to see a chart of silver shares relative to silver.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=:&p=W&st=1990-07-20&en=1975-12-31&id=p74116429201

It was cheaper in 2008 but comparable to 2001.  Who would want to own silver stocks now?   Hmmm….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wages-and-benefits-rise-weak-apf-4052349307.html?x=0&.v=1

Scientist at the heart of the ‘Climategate’ email scandal broke the law when they refused to give raw data to the public, the privacy watchdog has ruled.

The Information Commissioner’s office said University of East Anglia researchers breached the Freedom of Information Act when handling requests from climate change sceptics.

But the scientists will escape prosecution because the offences took place more than six months ago.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246661/New-scandal-Climate-Gate-scientists-accused-hiding-data-global-warming-sceptics.html#ixzz0e2bjMaR4

Posted: Jan 29 2010     By: Dan Norcini    

Dear CIGAs,

The big news today was the 4th quarter US GDP number. The shocking number of 5.7% growth, the fastest pace in six years, far exceeded the expectation of most analysts (Count me in as being extremely sceptical of that number especially with unemployment at current levels). That sent equities on a tear higher and while gold has recently been moving in lockstep with those, today was a turnaround from that pattern. It was taken back down through the $1,080 level as the Dollar shot upwards making mincemeat of yesterday’s sellers.

The recent pattern of the Dollar moving lower on “good” news was disrupted as traders bid the greenback higher on the “happy news”. At that point it must have been moving higher purely on momentum because the equity markets did a complete “about face” dropping well off their highs and moving into negative territory at one time. What makes the initial move higher in the equities even more suspect was the action in the bond market, which moved up more than half a point – that is not what I would expect from bond traders if they were convinced the economy was on the mend and ready for a stronger recovery. If bond traders thought for one moment that the growth number served up by the Feds was (a.) realistic, and/or (b.) sustainable, they would have taken the bonds down sharply out of concern of Fed rate hikes and liquidity withdrawal measures.

Further confirmation that the bond traders’ dubiousness is appropriate would be the bearish chart pattern in crude oil. That market certainly is not acting like energy traders believe the economy is growing at a 5.7% clip or the price of crude would not be dropping $10 barrel from $83 to $73. Heck, while we are at it, if the feds would create a cash for old refrigerators program, a cash for old motorcycles program and a cash for old television sets program, we could probably get a GDP number up near 9% this quarter and go on to pass China in our rate of growth. Like I said earlier, a 5.7% number sounds like a pile of hooey to me – then again I own a cow that just laid a huge egg big enough for 50 omelets. Takes about the same amount of intelligence to believe the latter as the former.

There are so many mixed signals being given off by the various bellwether markets that attempting to get a read on things is becoming an exercise in futility. Between constant government intervention and surreptitious rigging operations, combined with hedge fund algorithm madness, money is ricocheting back and forth in such chaotic fashion, that many traders are getting chopped to shreds. That is resulting in more and more players moving to short term trades, which then makes volatility increase all the more. Probably the best thing to do for the average investor is use the weekly charts which tend to filter out so much of this short term “noise” that seems to be getting louder to the point of annoying.

Back to gold – speculative long liquidation continues its rather torrid pace dropping off substantially in yesterday’s down market. Both longs and shorts are getting out with the shorts having their intentions frustrated by the buyer of size that continues to make their presence felt below and near the $1,080 region. It is evident that physical demand for gold is helping to stem the rate of price decline in gold. Bears are continuing to pressure the metal trying to reach further fund stops below the $1074 level but are being stymied by the strong buying that is occurring. The longer gold can bounce back from the current lows near $1,080, the stronger that support becomes technically as tentative speculative longs will begin dipping their feet in the water with nervous shorts quickly ringing the cash register when prices dip down near this level. That serves to reinforce the level further. As usual, time will make it clear for us. I am encouraged however to see this determined buyer continuing to surface on these selling bouts. Could it be China or India?

For now, the technical posture in gold remains bearish for the short term so rallies will continue to find willing sellers until price moves back above the $1100 level and remains there for a least two consecutive sessions. Support remains near the $1075 level with another level of support beneath that at $1,030 – $1, 025. Incidentally, February gold enters its delivery period next week so the speculative action will be focused on the April contract. It will be interesting to see what we get in the way of gold deliveries, not that most of us believe anything that the Comex warehouses report. You could probably have 8000 contracts of gold stopped and the warehouses would report a movement of 1,200 ounces out.

I will send up a monthly gold chart later on today.

One of the big problems that the gold bulls have is the poor technical performance of the gold shares. It is difficult to get too excited about the metal’s prospects when you have hedge funds leaning on the shares with their ratio spreads. We really need to see the HUI get above 407 – 410 to garner some bullish excitement and give us some signs of life. For right now, about the best thing I can say for the shares is that many of them are extremely oversold on the daily charts.

Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

ShareThis

I have no idea what you are saying, yet again.

I am short stocks and was stopped out of a gold stock purchase, my first since I said ABC down coming.

I am watching this market closely and you can choose to believe whatever. I believe that gold and the respective shares are going to go parabolic as well but you didn’t say where from. I say a lot lower and I have been mostly cash for this decline. I expect that GDX could double in two months from the low 30’s if and when the government announces the next round of money creation.

Mark Twain’s quote come’s to mind; “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated”

Good ..good COT figures….Plus I will be on the road by Tues. We wll be donew with this crap..and move up…