Oldtent Archives 2010

Try as hard as you can to make the meeting in Oklahoma…we need at least 5 ofour 21 people…There is a lot to write up but I will handle much of it…..get those proxies faxed to Young’s Law

Further …Just got back from a tour of my landlords lands…very interesting….he opened up to me because he realizes we have staying power…Boy did he have a suprise for me ..some of his land has a ridge running through it at Mile 12 Southern Highway ..he has taken out some material through the years but he got all involed with oranges and caye stuff and fishing. last few years..but my pounding about natural resorces and food has taken effect…But that ridge…he cut through it like a highway enginneer would go through a hill ..20 ft. high on each side and 130 ft. long or so….I got a good look at the strata in it …and darn if I didn’t see galena…but many other kinds of materiial at all levels…good rock and stone ..some marl and gypsum looking material…sand and gavel too..

We also looked at another piece many of you have passed…one mile in on Hopkins road going to Parrots Cove????
He has oranges and alot of free land …40 acres or so…but a big depression in one area that could easily be cleaned out and fixed up for Talipia fish farmin…right up our alley….It is always good to have backup….

China on Friday protested the US decision to sell 6.4 billion dollars in weapons to Taiwan and warned of “serious” damage to relations and cooperation with Washington.China’s Vice Foreign Minister He Yafai made an urgent official demarche to the US ambassador in Beijing, Jon Huntsman, in the early hours Saturday local time, Wang Baodong, spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, told AFP.

“The latest US move to sell weapons to Taiwan, which is part of China, constitutes a gross intervention into China’s internal affairs, seriously endangers China’s national security and harms China’s peaceful reunification efforts,” Wang quoted the protest as saying.

“The US plan will definitely undermine China-US relations and bring about serious negative impact on exchange and cooperation in major areas between the two countries,” he added.

China “strongly urges the US side to fully recognize the gravity of the issue, revoke the erroneous decision on arms sales to Taiwan and stop selling any weapons to Taiwan,” he said.

China snapped off military relations with the United States temporarily after the last US arms package to Taiwan in October 2008.

Beijing considers Taiwan, where China’s nationalists fled in 1949 after losing the mainland’s civil war, to be a territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

The United States in 1979 switched recognition to Beijing. But Congress requires the administration to provide Taiwan weapons for defensive purposes.

Wang said that the weapons deal violated the 1982 communique between China and the United States, which said the arms sales to Taiwan “will not exceed, in qualitative or in quantitative terms,” the level in the years before that.

State Department spokesman Philip Crowley earlier said that the arms sales were consistent with the three key communiques between the United States and China when they normalized relations.

got so bad little ole ladies used to come in and buy a .49 cup of coffee,then pick up the sugar shaker and empty it into their pocket books ..I had to stop giving them access to the sugar..

Switzerland’s justice minister warned in an interview on Sunday that top bank UBS could collapse if sensitive talks with the United States over a high-profile tax fraud investigation fall through.”The actions of UBS in the United States are very problematic. Not just because they are punishable but also because they threaten all of the bank’s activities,” Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf told Le Matin Dimanche newspaper.

“The Swiss economy and the job market would suffer on a major scale if UBS fails as a result of its licence being revoked in the United States,” she said.

Switzerland and the United States have negotiated an agreement under which UBS would hand over information on some 4,500 account holders to US tax police.

But a Swiss court ruling earlier this month put the deal in doubt.

Many in Switzerland, where banking secrecy is a source of pride and a key part of the economy, have accused the government of failing to protect UBS.

“We have nothing to blame ourselves for. I don’t think anyone could prove that we acted badly,” Widmer-Schlumpf said in the interview.

caused 25 % of the Dunkin Donut shops to fail  in 77…I remember it well, I was there !

My shop used to consume 1000 lbs per week of each .!

Glad to be of help  DAN! 

Sugar ahhhh sugar….you just reminded me of the commodity that jumped much higher First..It was sugar…the rise in sugar came out of nowhere in late 77….then it triggered many bakeries to close their doors…then kabbooom Inflation across the board..We must be getting close….It seems like yesterday..and..just after that…… News Break “Day 22 of the Iranian Hostage situation ..Kohemini bla bla bla ….Dan Rather here!

Hoisington are very good at summing things up in a rational manner, without any hysteria.  They are also one of the few groups that have a grasp of the concept of velocity of money.

Which is not inflationary.

I expect that has happened in lots of places around the globe and you get a bad weather year and here we are.  No doubt that the HOT money helps take it higher than it should be - kinda like $147 a barrel oil in 2008.

,they kept it simple !   WE could Just make the Bank President Personally responsible for the accounts safety . No insurence needed ! If the money dissapeared ,he goes to Jail…period . Make his personal assets the collateral for depositors safety .NO Corporations allowed ! Only after his personal assets are deemed insufficient and liquidation of the Banks assets should the state re-imburse depositors. Some combination of responsibility is in ORDER !.    It is clear INSURANCE has not protected depositors or stockholders.! It only enabled the Risk Takers who had no personal skin in the GAME.!

this week or next. The chart looks great. I think we are seeing a clear message here as to what gold’s role in the world monetary system is today.

So knowing that nations are facing sovereign risk everywhere, I believe that big dips in gold and silver are great long term buys in any currency.

Assume you mean the unquantifiable number of dollars comment.

I think he may be confused. If the numbers were even marginally severe on the upside then banks would be looking for returns in excess of what the Federal Reserve is giving them, yet reserves held at the Fed are unforeseen levels. All I see is a lot of consumer debt getting foreclosed on everywhere.

Put simply, I think the only money anywhere went right to corporations and since employment keeps falling and dividends are nowhere, it is staying in their coffers, meanwhile mom and pop are flat broke.

Some comments on:

Hoisington Investment Management Company
Quarterly Review and Outlook
Fourth Quarter 2009

I read the report and in part of their conclusion they write:

” Presently, we view the inflationary
environment as benign because: 1) the U.S.
economic system is overleveraged and academic
research confirms that this circumstance leads to
deflation; 2) monetary policy is, and will continue
to be, ineffectual as efforts to spur growth are
thwarted by declining asset prices, loan destruction,
and adverse regulatory influences; 3) the federal
government’s spending spree will necessarily
cause taxes and borrowings to rise, further stunting
any economic growth. These factors ensure that
inflation will be quiescent. Interest rates easily can
and do rise for short periods, but remaining elevated
in a disinflationary environment is contrary to the
historical experience. ”

I think that they explain their thinking very well in four pages. The chart of M2 shows a massive decline. So does their chart of bank credit. Record unemployment is a third factor that they analyze, and it too indicates that demand for credit is very weak. Government borrowing simply leads to a further drag on the economy. In their words:

” Our present high deficit situation
suggests that taxes will rise (including those of
state and local governments), depressing economic
activity further. In addition to the expiration of the
2001 and 2003 tax cuts, the Obama administration is
proposing substantial taxes on financial institutions
to pay for the cost of the financial bailout. Since
the tax multiplier is high, this will reinforce the
drag on economic activity from the lagged effects
of deficit spending. ”

www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q4NP.pdf

An article recently discussed the history of the Bank of Canada. If correct, the facts there suggest that from 1935 onward this publicly owned bank financed the Canadian government’s needs in a non-hyperinflationary manner that allowed Ottawa to borrow and not crowd out private borrowers, who could still use the private Canadian banks. This model still exists for sovereign states.

TQ

is like the wolves forming a committee on what to have for supper…you can be sure the sheep will not be safe .Wolves will do what wolves do !

They will not suddenly become vegetarians no matter how much talk they do  .If you want to reform Banking don’t expect the Bankers to do it ..the wrong people are meeting ..Reform minded Lawmakers with integrity should do it…if you can find any ! What we need is “open season” on Bankers in an effort to reduce their numbers just like we do with predators and vermin . No lawful protection for Bankers ,no immunity from prosecution,no tax free deals, no political contributions (make it illegal).  Reduce their numbers until they become an endangered specie .Ban them from holding public office like Treasury Secretary . Require the Federal Reserve comply with discrimination laws,affirmative action in hiring Member Banks heads.  12 Banks maybe something like 5 Christians,3 Jews ,1 Muslim 1 gay,1 Black,1 Chinese     you get the Idea ! something that more closley resembles the population .This would prevent collusion like we see from Goldman Sachs ex employees. Reject any suggestion that in a population of 300 million they cannot find 12 qualified diverse members.

The effect of alzheimers are protiens in the brain for starts. Contributiong factors are head injurys I think I was a invisible pioneer back in the day questioning familys. Also aluminum which were in cooking utensils canteens  deodorant/ try finding deodorant with out and a commonly used and still is product called mylanta. It apparantly has the ability to pass through the blood brain barrier. So it looks like that may be a factor in alzeheimers. Also if there is any factors that could cause disruption with this protective barrier. Looks like ntg and Israeli found some good info. What u could look for is clinical trials in these categorys she could  participate in and or follow these trials. I feel the gov sometimes can squash some of these trrial that are positive like that guy who suddenly died after promoting a car that could run on water while crying about oil uses but for different reasons, population control. Perhaps with a better information hwy some things will get through.

I have heard that when saturating the thyroid with good Iodine ,the body disposes the excess iodine via the kidneys and carrys along with it other metals !  I,m not a medical person , just like to think outside the box….

Can’t be a good indication of burgeoning world trade.

when he talks about dollar creation?

What’s happened around here is that because of the continued low price, the farms have been sold off for hobby farms or housing development, or just abandoned.

Banksters feeling pain ha ha. Why would banksters feel pain when the Gov. not only bails them out but encourages them to refuse a principle reduction while they home values to drop with their bail out. Since they are funded 100 percent to buy these forclosed homes on a discount what would there motivation be for helping the home owners from the mess they and the Gov. caused in helping the home owners slash economy when they can profit on foreclosing on them compliments of Obamanation.

Posted: Jan 31 2010     By: Dan Norcini 

Dear CIGAs,

The problem that we have today is that so many people are technical analysis “experts” that they are easily led around by chart patterns. That is the reason the Goldmans of the world can achieve so much by expending relatively little at strategic price levels and times. By painting charts you then get the usual throng of “experts” telling you “why” something is moving on the chart when more often than not, the action on the chart is in contradiction to the fundamentals. Price action makes market commentary is an axiom that will never lose its cogency.

Short term technical patterns will always overrule longer term fundamentals because so much money is at stake. Only the bravest or (stupidest depending on your perspective) trader can sit there and let a position move against himself if he is undercapitalized which most traders are. Prudence or margin calls dictate that they get out which reinforces the technical move and this continues until the bigger, well capitalized, long term fundamentalists move in and put an end to the technical play. It happens over and over and over again in markets and always will as long as they exist. It is also the reason that fortunes are made in the markets and why so few succeed. Only those who actually UNDERSTAND the markets that they are trading in RECOGNIZE when these technically based moves create HUGE OPPORTUNITIES that provide small risk, high probability chances for big profits.

An example of this occurred just recently in the wheat market. Index fund rebalancing required managed money and some swap dealers to buy large amounts of wheat, regardless of the fact that the fundamentals in wheat dictated that US wheat was at a supply surplus and its price was too high on the world market. That did not stop these unthinking funds from loading their plates with more and more of the stuff and pushing prices even higher. Why in the world would a market move higher when the very reason its underlying product was not selling because it was already priced too expensively on the global market? Answer – there is NO SOUND REASON FOR IT TO DO SO. Wheat moved higher because this fund buying tripped all sorts of technical buy signals and that had everyone and their mother doing all manner of semantic gymnastics looking for reasons to explain why the inexplicable was occurring. Suffice it to say, ONLY THOSE WHO UNDERSTOOD THE FUNDAMENTALS IN THE WHEAT MARKET, were able to keep their wits and recognize an opportunity created by these mindless funds which have taken over our markets. They sold and made money when wheat promptly collapsed in price after these funds were done engorging themselves with the stuff.

Today, far too many traders and analysts for that matter, are out there commenting on markets that they genuinely do not understand. It takes years and years of constant trading and study of individual markets to truly understand them and even at that, there are always new factors that need to be integrated into the mix of knowledge that one gains about that market. I have long told other would be traders, that the person who attempts to trade practically every market out there will never make money. One must learn to focus only on a few markets and thoroughly know those markets inside and out before they can hope to keep from becoming another casualty on the floor of the trading exchange.

Without learning the markets that one attempts to trade, one becomes a dupe that is easily led in circles. You end up going long, getting stopped out, then going short, then getting stopped out, then reversing back to long, then getting stopped out again until you are eventually cleaned out. The reason is because without knowledge of a market, you have no conviction other than the most recent short term price chart pattern. Without conviction based on sound knowledge, you become a trader than runs on emotions instead of discipline inevitably ending up chasing markets all over the place hoping to get it right. That’s not trading – it’s gambling, and you would be better off in Vegas where at least they have some nice looking show girls instead of a bland, blinking price quote screen.

That brings me back to the US Dollar – where is the fundamental argument in favor of a long term bull market in the greenback? Keep things simple – look at the almost unquantifiable sum of dollars being created and ask yourself where is the demand going to come from that can hope to absorb all of it. We have saddled not only the next generation and our own children with a crushing burden but their children as well. At some point it becomes mathematically impossible to realistically pay back such debt. All that is left becomes either a default or a currency devaluation.

Economics 101 still applies – when supply increases and demand remains constant or decreases, price must fall. Short term technical factors can temporary blur such axioms but they cannot undo economic law. Leveraged trade unwinding can push currencies all over the place and temporarily obscure the horrific fundamentals enveloping the Dollar, but once those run their course, we are right back to where we began once again – too many dollars and too few buyers of those dollars. Try to contemplate the size of the number ONE TRILLION and then, if that is possible, multiply that number and enlarge it further. Then try to contemplate the INTEREST PAYMENTS ALONE on such a sum. That is where the US has now arrived.

No nation in history has ever printed its way to prosperity, borrowed its way to prosperity or spent its way to prosperity. The US will not be exempt from this truth

Regards,
Trader Dan

Davos Forum Ends With No Consensus On How To Improve The Economy!

The only way to improve the economy comes at the expense of bankers, hence there is no salve.

amazing, I sent a note to a friend that a global tax will be next.

is it stinking to high heaven?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doqTSev-_lQ