The James Joyce Table
Midas du Metropole
Topic du Jour
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March 11 - Gold $1108 up 20 cents- Silver $17.14 up 14 cents
A Fascinating Time … Gold/Silver Bullish As Ever Following Gold Cartel’s Ploy
“The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.” - Alan Blinder, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve … stated years ago on PBS’s Nightly Business Report, and the quote of the day in this commentary on September 21, 2005
GO GATA!
Over the last many years we have witnessed The Gold Cartel going after gold with a vengeance numerous times … and they have blasted the price in short order. But NEVER have I seen them go after gold so repetitively like they have recently, especially this past week … and again right after Comex opened this morning:
Gold has constantly “acted well,” and come back from drubbings, yet a ticked off Gold Cartel then presses on the price even harder, causing the price to collapse in minutes. What makes their activity more noticeable than ever before is that the other markets are so quiet. In the past they would wait for the dollar to gain some strength and then move to bury the gold price. This is not the case at the moment. They are making their moves on euro strength as much as in weakness. The financial markets and general economic news has not been market moving to any major degree … except for gold and, to a lesser extent, silver.
What’s going on?
*The Treasury is petrified of losing control of their auctions. One, because of what it might lead to down the road as far as much higher interest rates. And two because of what higher interest rates will do to mortgage rates and the shaky US real estate market. As presented to the CFTC, we know of the Treasury/Fed’s understanding between gold and US interest rates, especially as far as perceptions go (Gibson’s Paradox by Larry Summers). Mission accomplished:
13:03 30-yr bond auction draws 4.68%, with 82.8% allotted at high
•Bid/cover 2.89vs. average of the last 8 auctions 2.48
•Indirect participation 23.9% vs. average 41.48%
•Following the results:
5-yr (3/32) to 2.33%
10-yr 2/32 to 3.63%
Dow 10559.32, (8.01)
* * * * *
Long-dated bonds turn higher after 30-yr auction
NEW YORK, March 11 (Reuters) - Long-dated U.S. Treasuries prices moved into the plus column on Thursday after a well-bid auction of U.S. Treasury bonds.
The market, narrowly lower before the 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) bidding deadline, shrank losses at the short and intermediate part of the curve while longer-dated 10- and 30-year securities moved into the plus column.
Thirty-year bonds were up 16/32 in price, their yields easing to 4.66 percent from 4.69 percent on Wednesday.
-END-
I believe I heard CNBC’s Rick Santelli use the word “barnburner” to describe these results.
*Behavioral Finance again, speaking of Lawrence Summers. The US financial markets are too quiet. Times like these have led to all out commotion down the road. While the Obama Administration is out there pep talking, and the PPT et al are managing the markets, the US real estate market stinks; the job market stinks; the commercial real estate market is gradually rolling over; many of our States are broke; and talk of sovereign debt problems continues to permeate the investment arena. It feels like the Obama gang has called a time out in attempt in order to figure out how to handle the situation. In the meantime, it’s SHOOT THE MESSENGER (gold) while they buy some time. A related note…
Hey Bill,
A friend in the commercial real estate space just forwarded me this article. Thought you’d find it to be interesting:
www.costar.com/News/Article.aspx?
id=51EADAF47AA8473244CAD9A0EBC81F18&ref=100&ii
d=172&cid=059206ACED3712371B4E2067016F579C
“It looks like the loan loss allowance to noncurrent loan ratio began declining in second half of 2006,” Fitzgerald noted. “Noncurrent loans and leases began increasing in second half of 2006, whereas loan loss allowances began increasing in second half of 2007. The average from 1992-2009 is 1.33, compared to 0.58 today.”
Put in dollars, that means that for the past 15 years or more, banks kept aside an average $1.33 for every dollar in bad debt they were carrying on their books. Today, banks have only 58 cents set aside.
Best,
Sasan
*In addition to those explanations, it is very possible The Gold Cartel is also petrified of what could happen if silver is called out of the Comex and they can’t make good on their major short positions. “Force Majeure” would be their worst nightmare as it would prove GATA’s case beyond a shadow of a doubt, as well as that of Ted Butler. It is why we included those words in our letter to the CFTC. We wanted to be on record that we told them what is coming if they don’t take corrective action.
Silver was starting to explode yesterday above $17.50. That’s when The Gold Cartel made their major move on gold, following the PM Fix. Gold went straight down and silver followed as traders were forced to dump their newly acquired long positions on the breakout and take hefty losses in minutes. There is some chance The Gold Cartel is all over gold in order to make it easier to cover their silver short positions. To do so, they need willing sellers to buy from so as not to drive the price to the moon. Thus, they have been bombing gold with lightning quick raids in gold in order to panic out silver spec longs. If I were them, that’s what I would be doing. They can never cover when silver is rocketing higher. Who would sell to them? Their positions are too large to do any meaningful covering in a sharply rising silver market.
The Comex’s reporting of open interest has become bizarre. They put out a preliminary estimate and then a final number later on. Get this:
*Preliminary numbers for yesterday – The gold open interest rose 11,251 contracts to 505,160 and the silver open interest rose 1891 contracts to 114,021.
*Final numbers - The gold open interest fell 2615 contracts to 491,264 and the silver open interest went down 1127 contracts to 111,003.
The difference in the numbers COMPLETELY changes the analysis for yesterday. In the first case, The Gold Cartel is going all out to bury the prices from where we are now. In the second, The Gold Cartel is engineering these incredibly sudden sharp drops in the price of gold in order to set off spec stops below the market, which allows them to cover their shorts.
Dave from Denver’s partner said yesterday he thought The Gold Cartel was bombing the market on rallies in order to induce spec long selling, so they could do just that, cover on the breaks. Today’s latter open interest numbers suggest he is correct. Dave:
“You see that drop in April o/i? The big roll is starting early for some reason. April has shed over 10% of its o/i in the past 3 days. The active “roll” period is usually the week leading up to 1st notice, which not until 3/31. The “rolling” has been spread evenly over Aug/Oct/Dec/Feb ‘11 for the most part. ”
If I were a conspiracy guy, I would say that the Comex purposely put out the large increases in gold and silver open interest to panic the specs out … which could have been another reason why gold and silver collapsed after the Comex open. I mean small open interest revisions are one thing. What they did today is beyond comprehension, unless you view it from a Planet GATA perspective