The Adrian Douglas/GATA article is very good, especially when added to other recent posts. He makes 2 main points. First, he argues that China’s economy is not about to collapse. It is a mistake to say that because percentages of growth are reducing this points to a collapse. He points out, rightly, that as China gets bigger and bigger the percentages inevitably reduce. The second point is that inventories at the LME are disappearing fast, and that a rapid rise in commodity prices is around the corner.
I’m wondering if there is more to the story, and the last part of his article, where he discusses US monetary growth, is actually the key.
China is awash in US cash (debt), and acquires more every month. True, it has been reducing its total holding of Treasuries, but what other currencies or bonds can it buy in the quantities it needs? Besides, it would be self-defeating for China to be seen to be offloading too much US debt since that would cause the value of its remaining holdings to fall. China has also been on a buying binge for raw materials around the globe, and this is the key. First, it’s a good way to spend US dollars as quickly as possible without greatly affecting the value of the US debt it holds, and secondly it’s a great way to prepare for the future.
It seems likely that the FED will start QE2 soon. IMVHO, QE is madeness, but the FED more or less got away with QE1. The dollar did not collapse, there was a small rebound in the economy, and the banks were saved. Now, though, the world is a wiser place and knows the dangers. IMVHO, QE2 will be the spark that ignites paper currencies. I think China knows this, and is planning for it. When fiat everywhere collapses, China will have full granaries, full wharehouses, full oil-tanks, and will either own or control the production of commodities in many parts of the globe.
If Adrian Douglas says that LME inventories will be gone in @ 2 years, well, isn’t that likely to be when China expects fiat to collapse? At that point it will write off any US debt it still holds. It will have the goods, and who cares about the paper? Yes, there will be social unrest in China, lots of it. But it will be less than the chaos elsewhere, and China more than anywhere will be ready for it.
Would this also be the moment that ‘Another’ was speaking of? When the Gulf States suddenly demand gold for their oil, not dollars. The moment when fiat burns?
Speaking of gold, I’ve been chewing on the price, which continues to disappoint us here in the tent. Who wants a lower price? Well, almost everyone actually, except us.
The Chinese, for a start. China is the biggest gold-mining countries in the world, but all production has to be sold to the government. Is it likely that the government wants to pay more? Are they also buying on the world markets? They were, and they probably still are. Are they capable of playing the futures markets to manipulate today’s price in their favour? You bet!
Who else wants to keep the price low? The bullion banks, who can continue their gold-lease games only so long as the price is strictly controlled. Then there’s the FED, and Obama, who don’t want any external hint that their control of the US dollar is slipping. Likewise, the Brits and the Europeans, they don’t want a high price. Half of them fear inflation, which would be signalled by higher gold, and half of them want to buy it while it’s still available at an attractive price. The Indians? As buyers they definitely prefer a lower price. The Russians? Like the Chinese, they are hoarding it. They’ll want a higher price in time, but not yet, not yet.
In fact, when you think about it the only ones who want a higher price today are right here in the tent. I’m looking around in here, and I don’t count very many of us. Outside the flaps this is the ‘Stealth Accumulation’ stage of buying gold. Everyone in the know is doing it, no-one is saying it.
If Adrian Douglas is right, there is about 2 years before gold will be in orbit, though it may start to rev its engines sooner. I suppose it depends which commodity in London runs out first, that will be the launch day. Silver, perhaps?
Patience, mes amis, patience. As I said a few days ago, there will be only 2 seats when the music stops, gold and silver. And food, of course. Guess who is buying arable land in Africa?