It is a draw in our household tonight to determine who appreciated that posting the most, Mrs. Equiz or me.
We were both touched by it, and we do appreciate you posting that link. Our best wishes to you. Equiz.
My gut does not trust this chart.
But we have had 5 waves down and we are now above both important moving averages and there is the divergence between the momentum and the price.
Still I go with down - may change my mind at coffee.
Notice how the BB band caught the short term tops and bottoms and other short term indicators worked on the chart.
aurum (CLF)
just a quick question - if gold is following the fractals why didn’t you tell us to short this morning and cover on the close.
No don’t answer even if I were “sure” I wouldn’t post.
aurum
chart has issues - I need to set it up in a spreadsheet
more tomorrow at coffee
aurum (CLF)
Today I was in the hammock under the magnolia tree wiith a cool breeze blowing in from the outflow of a nearby thunder head. I pondered and mumbled to myself and I could imagine Farmboy sitting there saying “Yep” to humor me.
I’ve done this many times before: Gold was at $300 after going down to $254 and I told myself to load the boat to the gunnels with gold and silver because gold was going to $600. All I heard was gasps and gauwks from the resident head Heron sitting by the lake. I read a hundred articles and a thousand posts. Some agreed and some didn’t using the same data and graphs.
Later gold finally got to $600 and I said too myself, gold is going to $1000, buy more, a phrase which I picked up from a smart fellow poster. The same results: the heron squacked, and squirrels barked and fussed at such an impossibility, as I again imagined Farmboy saying “yep”in order not to start an argument.
Gold got to $1200 and I squirmed in the hammock and said to myself, Gold is going to $2000 or $3000. Why couldn’t I see that when I was buying at $300? I imagined Farmboy saying, “Maybe the name Deadeye is related to your eyesight rather than your shooting ability” Hmmm - Farmboy has a reputation of telling the truth in a gentle way that humors people. I should have known Farmboy in my younger years. Deadeye
second bet
I am studying this chart now - but we may agree on it?
aurum (CLF)
On for the DJIA - heads significantly down after August (perhaps before).
okay.
aurum DJIA)
We’ll stay away from Gold and the PM shares because they are following the 70’s fractal too closely.
How about the Dow that you see as going down. I’ll take new highs in the Dow for the move off the March 09 low by the first quarter of 09. [Actually, I’d take by December since I think it is even coming sooner than that, but I’ll take whatever extra time I can get……]
Or, CLF to new highs for the move since the early 09 bottom by first quarter of 2011……..
OR……….Though the Dollar Index “price” has little to do with its value as the global competitive currency devaluations have started…………I’ll take the Dollar to test the old lows by the first quarter of 2011…………..since you are looking for a move up, if I remember correctly.
for the guesses I posted and the bets I asked for nothing so far
So you all will give a better odds to me as I will wait and answer over coffee tomorrow.
aurum
Well I can have some fun can’t I - some said US$ rally no way. It rallied and then I thought a correction was due.
It didn’t hold at my first target but I did say I wanted a bottom pattern which we did not see at the first target. Now at that second target I posted I think we will see a bottom pattern and if so per my bet I will go long.
aurum (UUP)
Glad to see that you are up and able to get around after the trip to Belize and the week with Irish - we were worried about you for a while! 
went to vote today in the reddest of the red states. seems a waste of time. the only variable now is when, not if or what. the new congress after mid term elections will set us on the path to much higher inflation or pull the plug on the fiat. i am still in the inflation camp, but if the fiat stream is shut off, down we go into the great hole of deflation.
so much fiat has been handed out that no one really has any idea where it wound up. if the backlash is strong enough, that fiat will be replaced (repudiated) and a new game begins.
rno
waiting for a chart bet - for fun
maybe we want to go back to my UUP bottom here (a bit below current area)- I can find the posts.
anyway give me a fractal give me a chart.
Do mot misunderstand I enjoy your posts and have supported you here as I need those who challenge my ideas.
aurum
and I am here to help!
Piling on Floridagold
again are you a trader or a believer - if the latter don’t look until it gets so high you can’t believe it
in a parabolic rise (which I am sure we aren’t at yet because of the almost double top) you only get one chance to sell at the peak or near the peak then it collapses very fast.
aurum
If this is a B then it is no fun. But you are saying that we get to a C in Sept of this year?
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — As BP chief Tony Hayward prepares to tackle new challenges in Russia, he’s hit on a way to choke off some of the cost of that pesky Gulf oil spill.
For BP shareholders, it’s pure genius.
Here’s how it works: Citing the $32 billion charge BP /quotes/comstock/13*!bp/quotes/nls/bp (BP 37.95, -0.05, -0.13%) is taking to cover the cost of the spill and the $17 billion second-quarter loss this caused the company, BP is entitled to a $9.9 billion tax credit. That’s nearly half of the $20 billion Hayward agreed to set aside to cover the job when he met last month with President Barack Obama. Read about BP’s tax credit.
And, because it’s part of the nation’s corporate tax code, it’s perfectly legal.
Hayward, fielding questions Tuesday about BP’s second-quarter results, wasn’t terribly eager to discuss the move. But he reassured everyone that it follows “current” IRS regulations. In other words, this will save BP nearly $10 billion that Washington had probably been counting on to help clean up the Gulf.
American taxpayers are likely to take a darker view of this development than BP shareholders. Despite President Barack Obama vowing to make BP pay for this mess, it suddenly looks like a big chunk of the cost will be coming out of their pockets after all.
Of course this might just be a temporary state of affairs. Once Washington lawmakers catch wind of a populist backlash, you can bet there will be calls to change the law.
That’s where things get really interesting. Remember when Hayward was on the hot seat in June, testifying before a mostly hostile gang of U.S. legislators? One of them really stood out. Representative Joe Barton of Texas took it upon himself to apologize to Hayward for what he called Obama’s $20 billion “shakedown” of the oil company. He later apologized for the apology, but his initial message stuck.
A month later, BP appears to be the one doing the shaking down, using a good old-fashioned American corporate tax loophole.
If lawmakers close that loophole, it would set a dire precedent for other companies counting on tax breaks to survive their own financial setbacks. Citigroup /quotes/comstock/13*!c/quotes/nls/c (C 4.16, +0.01, +0.24%) alone has built up $21 billion in deferred tax assets due to losses from the financial crisis.
No matter how this shakes out, Washington looks like it got caught flat-footed. And with nothing left to lose in the arena of public opinion, Tony Hayward suddenly doesn’t look so clueless after all.
